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White Sox vs. Giants MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Plus-Money Value on Dylan Cease and Chicago (Saturday, July 2)

White Sox vs. Giants MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Plus-Money Value on Dylan Cease and Chicago (Saturday, July 2) article feature image
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Quinn Harris/Getty Images. Pictured: Dylan Cease

  • The Giants are short home favorites on Saturday afternoon against the White Sox.
  • The White Sox will start the surging Dylan Cease on the mound while the Giants will counter with Logan Webb.
  • Nick Shlain breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

White Sox vs. Giants Odds

White Sox Odds +115
Giants Odds -135
Over/Under 7
Time 4:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Last year, the Chicago White Sox and San Francisco Giants were each eliminated from the playoffs in the first round after winning their respective division titles. The White Sox were defeated in four games by the eventual American League Champion Houston Astros, while the Giants pushed their rival Los Angeles Dodgers to a deciding fifth game before bowing out.

While neither club would make this year’s postseason if the playoffs started today, the Giants are closer to contention at 40-35, just a game back of the second National League Wild Card spot. The White Sox are 36-39 overall and four games out of the second American League Wild Card spot. Who will get the job done in this matchup?

Can the White Sox Hit for Power Against Webb?

While the White Sox were known for their power hitting last year, they’ve had a bit of a power outage this year. Chicago enters play Saturday with a team slugging percentage of .377, below the American League team slugging percentage average of .390. The White Sox don’t have a single hitter in the projected lineup with an ISO of at least .200 against right-handed pitching this season.

Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb, who made a name for himself last October with his outstanding performance against the Dodgers, has a 3.04 ERA this year. Webb has been even better at home this year as he has a 2.40 ERA in 48.2 innings this year. He has completed at least six innings in each of his last three starts while allowing only one earned run combined and striking out 22 batters. Expect him to have the upper hand on the White Sox offense today.


The Giants Look to Snap Cease’s Hot Streak

Dylan Cease had a couple of bad outings in May. He allowed six earned runs against the Yankees and seven earned runs against the Red Sox in a span of three starts.

Since that start against the Red Sox on May 24th, Cease has allowed just one earned run combined over his last six starts — that’s how Cease still has a 2.56 ERA overall this year. He’s been especially strong in his last two starts, completing at least six innings in each and striking out 24 batters combined.

Cease will get a ballpark upgrade for this game as the White Sox visit Oracle Park, a favorable ballpark for pitchers. The Giants lineup has some power in it as both Joc Pederson and Evan Longoria have ISOs above .200 against right-handed pitching this season. While Cease has a 2.56 ERA, his xFIP is considerably higher at 3.51. This isn’t the best ballpark to hit home runs, but Cease has hardly given anything up in his last six starts.

He has to be due to give up some runs eventually, right?

White Sox-Giants Pick

This is a tough game to find value on. I think it’s close to being priced efficiently as the over/under should be low (and it is), and the Giants should be slightly favored (and they are). While the model I use slightly favors the Giants, it’s more of a coin flip than the price implies, so I’m going to go with the White Sox at +115 on the moneyline, but this isn’t a strong play.

Pick: White Sox ML +115

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