MLB Odds & Picks for White Sox vs. Guardians: Will Home Underdog Snag Victory in Series Finale?

MLB Odds & Picks for White Sox vs. Guardians: Will Home Underdog Snag Victory in Series Finale? article feature image

Jason Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Jose Ramirez

  • The Cleveland Guardians host the Chicago White Sox in the final game of a weekend series.
  • Dylan Cease, who has put together an impressive campaign for the White Sox, gets the start opposite Aaron Civale.
  • Tony Sartori digs into the data and offers up his best bet below.

White Sox vs. Guardians Odds

White Sox Odds-130
Guardians Odds+105
Over/Under7.5 (-105/-115)
Time12:05 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the third and final game of this AL Central intradivisional series with the Cleveland Guardians hosting the Chicago White Sox. This divisional race is likely going down to the wire, meaning each game between these clubs is filled with significance.

Can the Guardians finish the series with a win as a short, home underdog, or will the White Sox take care of business as a road favorite?

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Chicago White Sox: Will Cease Bounce Back?

Dylan Cease is slated to take the mound for the White Sox. Through 24 starts, Cease is 12-5 with a 2.09 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP.

His metrics are also strong, so why are the White Sox listed as such a short favorite?

First of all, Cease is coming off a sub-par start (at least by his standards) in which he allowed three earned runs on six hits in five innings against the Astros.

The Astros possess one of the best lineups in baseball, but it is not out of the question that the Guardians could also see some success. In fact, Cease has struggled against Cleveland in his career.

Over eight career starts against the Guardians, Cease possesses a 4.08 ERA with a 1.51 WHIP. Following Cease is a below-average bullpen.

Since July 1, Chicago's relief pitching ranks just 22nd in the league in ERA, 21st in WHIP, 20th in BA and 17th in wOBA.

Cleveland Guardians: Can Guardians Succeed Against Cease?

On the mound for the Guardians, we can expect to see right-hander Aaron Civale. Through 14 starts this season, Civale is 2-5 with a 5.63 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP.

Again, this begs the question … why are the Guardians such short underdogs?

First of all, Civale has been much better than those numbers suggest. Over his past eight starts, Civale boasts a 2.97 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP. Secondly, Cleveland possesses the bullpen advantage.

Since July 1, the Guardians' relief pitching ranks seventh in the league in ERA, fourth in WHIP, 11th in BA, 10th in SLG, fourth in wOBA and second in FIP. Additionally, this pitching staff should get some decent run support in this contest.

When facing right-handed pitchers, Cleveland ranks fourth in the league in BA, 11th in OPS and 13th in wOBA since the beginning of July. Through 82 career plate appearances against Cease, this current Guardians roster boasts a .297 BA, .419 SLG and a .341 wOBA.

White Sox-Guardians Pick

Cleveland has dominated the White Sox this season and I expect that trend to continue on Sunday. While Cease is certainly a monster, the Guardians boast the matchup advantage and the better bullpen.

Cease has not done as well against Cleveland as he has against the rest of the league, which is why we are getting a short number. Add in home-field advantage in a big divisional matchup and I will bite on the fishy line.

Pick: Cleveland Guardians ML (+110) | Play up to (-110)

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