We have a smaller 9-game slate on Thursday, starting with Pirates vs Phillies at 12:35 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park and including White Sox vs Guardians at 6:40 PM ET at Progressive Field.
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for Thursday, July 2.
Below are 4 expert MLB best bets today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:35 PM | |
  | 3:10 PM | |
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 7:15 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Matt Trollo's Pirates vs Phillies Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
By using BARTOLO, you may see that this game is forecast to begin at 100 degrees, and it’s only supposed to get hotter from there.
BARTOLO is also suggesting a greater-than-15 % boost from that forecast, which we can add to a park run environment already 4% above average and an umpire an additional 0.5% above average.
That’s, well, not quite Coors, but just about Sacramento territory.
Pick: Over 10 (-110 or Better)
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Tanner McGrath's Marlins vs Rockies Best Bet
Though Ryan Gusto's flyball numbers have stabilized compared to last season, Coors Field is notoriously a hitter's park.
The thin air minimizes the movement on breaking balls, which severely neutralizes Gusto's primary offspeed tracking. With Colorado standing as a constant threat to lift the ball at home, Gusto will likely pivot to a pitch-to-contact mindset simply to keep his pitch count down and avoid the long ball, rather than hunting punchouts.
The sportsbooks are dangling an enticing plus-money tag on this under because of the Rockies' raw season-long strikeout volume. However, our internal PRO Projections have identified a massive 19.0% edge, with Gusto falling short of this mark.
Given Colorado's ultra-aggressive approach on the first pitch, Gusto's reduced breaking-ball break at altitude, and a general game plan centered on inducing grounders, finishing with three or fewer strikeouts is strongly favored by the data.
Pick: Ryan Gusto Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100 or Better)
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Frank Ammirante's White Sox vs Guardians Best Bet
I'm taking Guardians F5 ML in this one.
Not only are we getting the shorter price on the home team, but Slade Cecconi has quietly been in a nice rhythm over the last couple of months.
Since May 7, Cecconi has a 2.63 ERA (3.55 xERA), 1.23 WHIP, an 18.8% strikeout rate, and a 7.2% walk rate over 54 2/3 innings. During this 10-start stretch, Cecconi has given up two earned runs or fewer in eight outings. If we narrow it down to his last five starts, his ERA is 1.88.
While Martin has had a nice season, we've seen him have some blowup starts, most notably against the Yankees on June 16th, when he allowed nine runs.
With that in mind, we'll take a shot on the Guardians to have a lead after the first five innings.
Pick: Guardians F5 ML (-110 or Better)
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Evan Abrams's Cardinals vs Braves Best Bet
By Evan Abrams
The total for this matchup is set at 9 runs, and the smart money is pointing directly toward the under.
This game sets up perfectly for the "Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams, Later in Series" betting system developed by analyst Evan Abrams. This strategy focuses on total runs in the later stages of an MLB series (Game 2 or later) when both teams have winning records.
The logic dictating the system suggests that matchups between two high-caliber teams late in a series naturally breed intense, competitive environments with focused pitching and strategic adjustments.
Despite those factors pointing toward a lower-scoring affair, the general betting public almost always gravitates toward the over, expecting fireworks and plenty of runs from two marquee lineups. This public bias creates an ideal contrarian opportunity.
By backing the under when public support for it drops to 35% or lower, smart bettors can capitalize on a significant market inefficiency.
Fading the public perception is highly profitable here, as casual fans routinely overestimate offensive output in a decisive series finale.
Trust the trends and take the Under 9 runs in Atlanta.
Pick: Under 9 (-120 or Better)
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