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White Sox vs. Orioles MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Lance Lynn, Chicago Have Value on the Road (Thursday, August 25)

White Sox vs. Orioles MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Lance Lynn, Chicago Have Value on the Road (Thursday, August 25) article feature image
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Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Lance Lynn (33).

  • The White Sox and Orioles wrap up their three-game series Thursday night in Baltimore.
  • The Sox enter the rubber match as the favorites with Lance Lynn on the mound.
  • Doug Ziefel explains why the value is on the road favorite.

White Sox vs. Orioles Odds

White Sox Odds -120
Orioles Odds +100
Over/Under 8 (-115/-105)
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
TV FS1
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Chicago White Sox bats got the party started early and then put the hammer down late on their way to a 5-3 victory in yesterday’s contest to set up this rubber match.

Now they’ll be looking to take the series as they hand the ball to Lance Lynn. Like his predecessor in the rotation. Lynn’s peripheral numbers may be an eye sore, but there are multiple indicators that he will begin to turn in around tonight.

As for the Baltimore Orioles, Jordan Lyles will be toeing the slab. Lyles has been an enigma this season, but we may have a clue as to what version of him we will get in this outing. So, who’s going to take the rubber match? Let’s take a closer look to find out.

White Sox Lineup Starting to Wake Up

The White Sox bats came to life early as they put up two runs in the top of the first, which is unusual considering that Chicago is 23rd in first-inning runs per game. However, it is an excellent sign for this lineup as they are slowly returning to full strength and displaying just how potent the top of the order can be.

As I alluded to in the open, Jordan Lyles has been consistently inconsistent for the O’s, which means that he is streaky from month to month. So far this season, he’s had two months where he posted an ERA under four and two months where he posted an ERA well above four. However, through four starts in August, his ERA currently sits at 4.87 as he’s allowed four earned runs in each of his last two starts.

However, his downward trend is not the only negative indicator he has heading into this outing. Lyles’ ERA for the season entering this start is 4.61, but his xERA is 4.85, and that is due to the quality of contact he’s surrendered. Additionally, Lyles ranks in the bottom 20% of all qualified pitchers in every expected statistic, as well as sitting in the bottom seven percentile in barrel rate.

Just as we went over in yesterday’s preview, those are not numbers that you want to take against this White Sox lineup. They are top ten in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity as a team, and they also have the fourth-highest team batting average in the majors. So if yesterday was any indication, we could see them on the board early once again.


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Orioles Poised for Regression

I noted yesterday that this Orioles lineup may have hit its peak offensively as their actual statistics and expected statistics were virtually identical. That notion proved correct as they only struck out six times yesterday, but the quality of their contact dropped off as they only recorded six hits as a team.

Lance Lynn has a similar profile to Giolito, as the predictive stats are pointing towards some positive regression for him. Lynn had been getting hit hard in his first nine starts as he had an ERA over six. However, since the page turned to August, he’s had far better results. He’s allowed two runs or less in three of his four starts this month, and we should see another good outing from him tonight.

Lynn’s ERA entering this start is 5.30, but his xERA is 4.09, and his FIP is 4,29. Much like Giolito, Lynn has allowed much more hard contact in years past, but that is not due to a lack of stuff. His strikeout and whiff rates are amongst the top 35 percent of all qualified pitchers.

As for those poor hard contact rates, they should improve as well. Lynn attacks hitters with his four-seam fastball, cutter, and sinker. Each of those pitches has xBAs lower than their BAAs. His command had been excellent, as his walk rate is in the top two percent of baseball, so if he keeps executing his fastballs, he should have a great deal of success in this outing.

White Sox-Orioles Pick

The White Sox are a team trending in the right direction. Their lineup is poised to produce early and often in this matchup. That is good for Lynn as he’s also primed to deal this evening. We saw everything we needed to see out of Chicago yesterday to back them, and we should see similar results tonight.

Pick: White Sox -120

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