White Sox vs. Orioles MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Lucas Giolito, Chicago to Triumph (Wednesday, August 24)

White Sox vs. Orioles MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Lucas Giolito, Chicago to Triumph (Wednesday, August 24) article feature image

Ron Vesely/Getty Images. Pictured: Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Lucas Giolito.

  • The Orioles take on the White Sox in Wednesday's American League showdown at Camden Yards.
  • Starting pitcher Lucas Giolito and Chicago are slight favorites, which is in line with analyst Doug Ziefel's projection for the matchup.
  • Here's why he has landed on the hosts to earn the victory.

White Sox vs. Orioles Odds

White Sox Odds-120
Orioles Odds+102
Over/Under8.5 (-105/-115)
Time7:05 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The White Sox are looking to even up their series with the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday in Major League Baseball action.

Chicago will turn to a trusted arm to get them there in Lucas Giolito. He's coming off of one of his worst outings of the season, but all indications point to him bouncing back in a big way.

Opposing Giolito will be Spenser Watkins, who has had an up-and-down month where he has had two good outings and two poor outings. Although, a closer look might reveal how he will fair during this outing against one of the most potent lineups in the American League.

We're in the dog days of August and both clubs are in the midst of playoff races. So, who's going to take this crucial game? Let's dive in to find out.

Baltimore Orioles

As I eluded to earlier, Giolito got roughed up in his last outing. He allowed seven runs on eight hits, lasting just three innings against the Astros. However, he's due for some positive regression and it very well could start here.

Giolito has a 4.13 FIP and 4.20 xERA this season. That's considerably lower than his 5.34 ERA overall. However, the most significant indicator for him having more success moving forward is the quality of his stuff. Despite allowing more contact in seasons past, Giolito's whiff and strikeout rates are still in the top 30 percent of baseball.

Batters are not only due to swing and miss at his stuff but also make far less hard contact as well. Giolito is essentially a three-pitch pitcher, and each of his xBA's on those pitches is 33 points lower than the BAAs of those pitches on the season.

As far as Giolito's matchup for this outing goes, the Orioles have been playing at their peak as their batting averages and wOBA are exactly in line with their team xBAs and xwOBAs. They also have the 10th-highest team strikeout rate in the last week, so there might even be some offensive regression on the way.

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Chicago White Sox

Watkins has had a nice campaign in the Baltimore rotation. However, his inconsistency has him trending downward heading into this outing. Last time out, he threw five-plus innings of one-run ball against the other Chicago team.

However, there are multiple indicators he could be in for a quick trip to the showers. First, his FIP is 4.35 and his xERA is 4.82 this season, which are notch up from his ERA, which is 4.04 overall. Also, the amount and quality of contact he has allowed is alarming.

Watkins enters this outing in the bottom 25 percent of all qualified pitchers in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and whiff rate. So he's not missing many bats, and the large majority of the contact is hard.

Those aren't numbers you want to take into a game against the White Sox, who rank in the top 10 in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. But, of course, it also helps they're getting healthier as well. Luis Robert has recovered from his wrist injury and will join a lineup with Eloy Jimenez and Jose Abreu.

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White Sox-Orioles Pick

The White Sox have been sliding as of late as they have lost four of their last five, but Giolito has an excellent opportunity to be the stopper. He's trending in the right direction despite his most recent results.

Also, his opposition is nearing a decline after playing to their peak of late. Giolito should also receive run support since Watkins cannot keep wiggling his way out of trouble for long. And the amount of power in this White Sox lineup could put runs on the board in a hurry.

Back the Chicago to salvage a series split.

Pick: White Sox ML (-120)

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