The New York Yankees take on the Seattle Mariners on July 9, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on Amazon Prime Video.
Continue below to find Yankees vs Mariners betting analysis and a pick on the spread.
My Mariners vs Yankees Prediction
- Mariners vs Yankees pick: Yankees -1.5 (+130 DraftKings)
My Mariners vs Yankees best bet is the Yankees to cover the run line. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Yankees vs Mariners Odds
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -156 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | +128 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +128 | 9.5 -110o / -110u | -156 |
Yankees vs Mariners Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Logan Evans (SEA) | Stat | RHP Cam Schlittler (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | W-L | MLB debut |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | – |
| 2.96/4.69 | ERA /xERA | – |
| 4.62/4.34 | FIP / xFIP | – |
| 1.25 | WHIP | – |
| 10.5% | K-BB% | – |
| 39.7% | GB% | – |
| 96 | Stuff+ | – |
| 100 | Location+ | – |
Yankees vs Mariners Betting Analysis, Prediction
The Yankees snapped out of their slump in dominant fashion, and I’m backing them to keep rolling tonight at -1.5 (+130). After dropping six straight—including a rough series loss to the Mets—the headlines started pouring in, and doubt crept in around this team. But if you’ve played at a high level, you know how that pressure can light a fire. And last night, they showed just that—a 10-3 beatdown of the Mariners that looked like a team waking back up.
Momentum like this, especially heading into the All-Star break, is no small thing. The Yankees are now 27-17 at home on the season, winning by an average of 1.6 runs per game, and that margin has only improved in recent weeks. They're returning home with energy, facing a Mariners team that just got punched in the mouth, and they have the bullpen and the bats to put this game away early.
I get that there’s some hesitation due to rookie starter Cameron Schlittler, but this kid’s no ordinary debut arm. At 6'6", he's a grinder who’s earned this call-up and brings real upside. Plus, with New York’s elite bullpen behind him, the pressure won’t all fall on his shoulders. The books seem to agree, showing respect with line movement toward the Yankees on both the moneyline and run line, even with the public heavily on this side. That tells me we’re not seeing trap movement—if anything, this might be one of those rare times where being on the public side is the sharp side.
On the data side, multiple long-term profitable systems align with a Yankees win:
Favorites playing their 2nd straight home game after winning the first by 3+ runs have gone 494-259 (66%) all-time with a +9% ROI. It makes sense—good teams at home tend to build momentum and feed off big wins. Even with a slightly down season (10-12), the long-term edge remains.
Heavy favorites who are underperforming but still winning vs quality opponents are hitting 730-391 (65%) overall with a +6% ROI. The Yankees fit this mold perfectly—still winning games despite public doubt, now facing a Mariners squad with a strong record.
Finally, home favorites with great season scoring margins vs very good opponents have hit 391-218 (64%) all-time with an 11% ROI. That’s a massive edge, and when you combine this with the Yankees’ strong home metrics and improved recent form, it supports not just a win, but a convincing one.
These moneyline systems work because they consistently capitalize on mispriced favorites in winning spots — where recency bias, public fear, or rookie uncertainty softens the line just enough to give value.
Tonight, we’re flipping the usual script and backing the public — with conviction.
Yankees -1.5 (+130) is the call.
Pick: Yankees -1.5 (+130 DraftKings)
Yankees vs Mariners Betting Trends
