Yankees vs Red Sox Pick Tuesday Night | MLB Odds, Predictions Today (September 12)
Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Kutter Crawford (Red Sox)
Yankees vs. Red Sox Odds
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+102 | 9.5 -104 / -118 | -1.5 +155 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-120 | 9.5 -104 / -118 | +1.5 -188 |
A doubleheader between two of the biggest rivals in sports will take place as part of the MLB slate on Tuesday. For the purposes of this piece, I'm focusing on the nightcap.
Games between these divisional rivals are always marquee, but with both teams out of playoff contention, this one has a little less pizzazz.
The Yankees will turn to prized free-agent acquisition Carlos Rodon. Rodon has yet to live up to his investment, but pitching well against the Red Sox may help endear him to the Yankee faithful.
He'll be opposed by Kutter Crawford, who's coming off a rough outing against Tampa Bay, but has plenty of indicators pointing to this outing going far better.
So, what's the best way to bet game two? Let's dig in to find out.
If it isn't clear by now, the Yankees aren't the team we thought they were offensively. Even with Aaron Judge back in the lineup, they're still tied for the worst team batting average in baseball and are 20th in wRC+.
What's interesting is that their contact metrics suggest positive regression, as they're eighth in xWOBACON.
However, that positive regression may not come tonight, as they have a sneaky, arduous task on their hands against Crawford.
Crawford has been far more effective than his 4.36 ERA may imply. His xERA is drastically lower at 3.63, and that's because he's done an excellent job of limiting hard contact this season by having hitters chase pitches just barely out of the zone.
We should see him have plenty of success against this Yankees lineup, as the only true threats in the order are Judge and Stanton. We saw Crawford struggle with his command in his last outing, but that's not typical of him.
All the positive regression should work in his favor tonight.
The Red Sox are a team that was a pleasant surprise based on the quality of the AL East. They've found a way to remain competitive, and their lineup is a big reason why.
They enter with the third-highest team batting average in baseball, but have lacked consistency in the power department, which has led to them getting outslugged in many cases.
However, that may not be the case tonight, as they get to face Rodon.
Rodon looks to be a shell of himself since rocking the pinstripes, but what's peculiar is that his stuff hasn't diminished.
Rodon's biggest issue has been his command, both in and out of the zone. His walk rate is up three percent, and his fastball has been living up in the zone.
The Red Sox may be the team to help him out a bit, as they have the third-highest chase rate in the majors.
If Boston doesn't stay disciplined, it could minimize its opportunities against Rodon.
Yankees vs. Red Sox
Betting Pick & Prediction
The market is too high on this total. It's clear that both of these clubs are being overrated offensively, and on top of that, the conditions at Fenway aren't indicative of runs — the wind will be blowing in.
We should also see a solid outing from Crawford, as he has all the tools to shut down the Yankees' lineup.
As for his counterpart, we can be cautiously optimistic about Rodon, but a big help will come from the pitchers behind him.
The Yankees lead the majors in bullpen ERA, and that pen will play a big factor, especially if Rodon falters.
Take the under.
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