Sumudaerji vs Jesus Aguilar Odds
| Sumudaerji Odds | -218 |
| Aguilar Odds | +180 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-200/+154) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 326 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 326 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Sumudaerji vs. Jesus Aguilar prediction for UFC 326 on Saturday, March 7, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Sumudaerji vs. Aguilar pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Sumudaerji | Aguilar | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 18-7 | 12-3 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 10:42 | 9:10 |
| Height | 5'8" | 5'4" |
| Weight (pounds) | 125 lbs. | 125 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 72" | 62" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 1/20/1996 | 3/13/1996 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.48 | 2.65 |
| SS Accuracy | 52% | 40% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 2.39 | 1.85 |
| SS Defense | 60% | 62% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.16 | 1.64 |
| TD Acc | 11% | 31% |
| TD Def | 71% | 48% |
| Submission Avg | 0.6 | 1.4 |
Sumudaerji vs. Aguilar Pick, Prediction
This matchup will look like fighters from different weight classes competing, as Sumudaerji stands 4" taller, with a 10" reach advantage over Jesus Aguilar, who owns the shortest reach in the history of the men's UFC divisions (62").
Despite his size and seemingly limited technical skill set, Aguilar has proven to be a relatively effective distance striker, outlanding his opponents by 2.2 strikes per minute at distance, compared to 3.4 for his opponents.
Still, Aguilar's best path in this matchup may be land takedowns and getting on top of his opponent, but he's not a particularly effective wrestler, and seems unlikely to have opportunities to test his lethal guillotine against an opponent who is unlikely to grapple offensively; he likely needs to turn caught kicks into takedowns.
If this fight were in the smaller cage at the APEX, I'd give Aguilar a better chance of being able to close the distance and pull off the upset. Still, Sumudaerji should be able to pick him apart with his jab from distance in the 30-foot octagon at T-Mobile Arena, and glide to a relatively comfortable decision.
"The Tibeaten Eagle" shows moneyline value; I project him at -290 and would take his moneyline to -260, or include him in a parlay at -275. Aguilar is an extremely public underdog this week, being picked to win the bout around 50% of the time in my public data sample, despite a significant difference in both size and betting odds.
Alternatively, or in addition, back Su to win by decision; I set that prop at +111, compared to the listed odds of +125.
Zerillo's Picks:
- Sumudaerji (-205, 0.25u), Caesars; bet to -260
- Parlay (+137, 0.25u), Caesars: Sumudaerji (-205), Donte Johnson (-900), Caio Borralho (-230)
