Ricky Turcios vs. Alberto Montes Odds
| Turcios Odds | +150 |
| Montes Odds | -180 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-160/+124) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 326 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 326 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Ricky Turcios vs. Alberto Montes prediction for UFC 326 on Saturday, March 7, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Turcios vs. Montes pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Turcios | Montes | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 13-5 | 11-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 13:44 | 7:38 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'7" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 71" | 69" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 6/05/1993 | 5/31/1994 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 4.73 | 4.98 |
| SS Accuracy | 40% | 66% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.72 | 4.85 |
| SS Defense | 52% | 57% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.91 | 0.00 |
| TD Acc | 20% | 0% |
| TD Def | 44% | 66% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 9.8 |
Turcios vs. Montes Pick, Prediction
Alberto Montes is making his UFC debut after winning via second-round submission on Contender Series as a -290 favorite.
Both fighters, who typically compete at 135 pounds, are moving up to 145 for this matchup, which seems odd considering it was not a short-notice booking.
Ricky Turcios is the bigger man (2" taller, 2" reach advantage), but Montes is the stronger and more powerful fighter. However, he's a bit of a note-note grappler who relies on front headlock chokes, and Turcios has proven himself a competent defensive grappler and scrambler when he isn't overpowered in terms of physicality.
I do expect Montes to get the better of the grappling early, when both men are fresh, but the longer the fight extends, the more difficult it will be for Montes to submit or hold Turcios down. I'd anticipate the underdog will take over the momentum with pace and volume in the final two rounds of the matchup.
As a result, while I show pre-fight value on Turcios and would take his moneyline down to around +150 (projected +138), I expect that you would find a better price on his moneyline after Round 1 and can add live. Additionally, I would bet his pre-fight point spread (+3.5, -125) and back Turcios to win one clear round at minimum without getting finished or surrendering a 10-8.
If Montes doesn't win by Round 1 submission, I suspect things may go south in a hurry for him.
Projection: Montes (58%)
Zerillo's Picks:
- Ricky Turcios (+160, 0.25u), Caesars; bet to +150
- Ricky Turcios +3.5 (-130, 0.2u), DraftKings; bet to -150
- Ricky Turcios Live after Round 1
