Rob Font vs Raul Rosas Prediction, Pick, Odds for UFC 326 (Saturday, March 7)

Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Odds

Check out the Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas prediction for UFC 326 on Saturday, March 7, along with my betting preview and breakdown.

The UFC's youngest-ever signee, Raul Rosas, is now three years into his UFC tenure, riding a four-fight win streak against gradually increasing opposition since suffering his first career loss. He's set to take his biggest step yet this time, as he takes on veteran Rob Font, who is currently ranked #24 in Tapology's bantamweight rankings. The 38-year-old Font is 17 years the senior of "El Niño Problema" but is still a tough out, and will serve as a solid litmus test for Rosas as he attempts to climb the rankings.

Here's my Font vs. Rosas pick and prediction.

Tale of the Tape

At this point, it seems like Raul Rosas's goal to become the youngest ever UFC champion is fairly unlikely, though he still has roughly two years to supplant Jon Jones in that category. A win over Rob Font would go a long way towards getting him a top-15 opponent, though, so the door is still slightly open.

Rosas is/was a grappling prodigy who seemed to have MMA as the eventual goal all along. While most modern submission grapplers emphasize leg locks and guard play, Rosas has an MMA-friendly style of grappling predicated on takedowns and top control. His ability to convert takedowns into control time already rivals the sport's best, with the possible exception of the Nurmagomedov/Makhachev clan.

What his game lacks, though, is the ability or desire to do damage from a top position. Rosas does a tremendous job transitioning from striking to grappling, using his punches to close the distance and distract opponents from the threat of a takedown. However, once the fight hits the floor, he seems to switch into BJJ mode, mostly abandoning strikes altogether.

This tends to be more apparent as fights wear on and Rosas gets tired. In his win against Vince Morales last March, Rosas had at least 2:37 of control time in every round. In the first round, he went 4-for-4 on significant ground strikes. In the second, he attempted just one strike, and in the third, none at all.

With that said, any criticisms of Rosas should come with the qualifier "yet." At 21 years old, he's growing both physically and skills-wise at a rapid rate, and has ample time to shore up some of these weaknesses. He's made noteworthy improvements every time we've seen him so far, and with a year since his last fight, those improvements are likely to be even more drastic this time around.

So far, we've seen most of his growth come in the striking realm, where he looked especially sharp against Morales in limited opportunities. I believe the more important growth will be in his approach to doing damage on the ground, which will be what I'm watching for this weekend.

That's because it's hard to see Rosas getting the better of Font on the feet, improvements or not. Font is one of the sharpest boxers in the sport, with a +1.6 significant strike differential despite fighting some of the division's best fighters over the past decade-plus. That number is even more impressive when you consider how much time he spends on his back.

Font wasn't taken down at all by fellow striker David Martinez in his last fight, but in the four preceding contests, he gave up 22 takedowns over 14 rounds combined. That inability to stay upright is probably why the UFC chose him for Rosas, as they're interested in building up the young Mexican standout.

Font isn't a bad grappler necessarily, but his boxing-heavy style and forward pressure provide ample opportunity for takedown attempts from his opponents. While he'll occasionally scramble back to his feet, he's also generally content to hunt submissions from his back, which is the exact wrong thing to do in this specific matchup.

On the plus side for the veteran, the de-emphasis of takedowns and control in the scoring criteria means he could potentially win some rounds despite ending up on his back for the majority of them. If Rosas continues to eschew damage on the mat, a good combo or two from Font could be enough to sway the judges in his favor.

He also should have a solid cardio edge. Rosas has struggled late in fights so far in his career, while Font has a ton of five-round experience and has held up well down the stretch in most of his fights. Font also strikes the body well, which could further drain the tank of Rosas.

Font vs. Rosas Pick, Prediction

While the potential for improvement from Rosas gives me a bit of pause, everything we've seen from both men in their careers suggests that Rosas will have plenty of success getting the fight to the ground, but likely fade down the stretch and potentially give away a round or two due to lack of damage.

Rod Font has been submitted just once in his career, and his jiu-jitsu is much better than his wrestling, so I expect him to avoid being submitted when he is taken down.

That adds up to a fight that likely goes the distance (barring a Font knockout) and probably sees Font steal at least one round. Thus, Rob Font's +3.5 point spread at -135 via DraftKings is my favorite bet for this fight.

Once available, I'll also be looking for the under on Rosas significant strikes, and the over on his takedowns if the line comes in at less than three. Finally, I'll have my eyes peeled for a live bet on Font, should the opportunity present itself.

Billy's Pick: Rob Font +3.5 (-135, DraftKings)

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