Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay Odds
| Tobias Odds | -180 |
| Nurgozhay Odds | +150 |
| Over/Under | 1.5 (-105/-125) |
| Location | T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada |
| Bout Time | 6:15 p.m. ET |
| TV/Streaming | Paramount+ |
| UFC 326 odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Bet on UFC 326 with our DraftKings promo code. | |
Check out the Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay prediction for UFC 326 on Saturday, March 7, along with my betting preview and breakdown.
Here's my Tobias vs. Nurgozhay pick and prediction.
Tale of the Tape
| Tobias | Nurgozhay | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 14-1 | 10-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 3:46 | 5:55 |
| Height | 6'2" | 6'2" |
| Weight (pounds) | 205 lbs. | 205 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 74" | 74" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
| Date of birth | 3/20/2003 | 4/22/1997 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 3.45 | 3.04 |
| SS Accuracy | 30% | 50% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 3.98 | 2.99 |
| SS Defense | 100% | 100% |
| Take Down Avg | 3.98 | 2.54 |
| TD Acc | 100% | 100% |
| TD Def | 0% | 100% |
| Submission Avg | 4.0 | 0.0 |
Tobias vs. Nurgozhay Pick, Prediction
Rafael Tobias will make his UFC debut on Saturday after winning via first-round submission on Contender Series as a -450 favorite, while showing competent grappling relative to the divisional standard.
The promotion seems intent on moving Tobias quickly in the division, pairing him against a fighter coming off consecutive submission losses in Diyar Nurgozhay. Still, I think some market overcorrection is baked into this line; Nurgozhay entered the promotion as an intriguing, unbeaten prospect – following a finish win of his own on Contender Series, but has lost his hype train after consecutive defeats as a -450 favorite against Brendson Ribeiro, and in a pick'em against Uran Satybaldiev.
Tobias, just 22 years old, lost regionally via knockout as a significant favorite and has not proven that he can maintain a measured or minute-winning fighting style at this level when he is unable to finish his opponents; he is extremely reckless and puts him.self in harm's way.
While I'm concerned by the odd ways in which Nurgozhay lost – getting submitted twice without permitting a takedown – the market has steamed aggressively in his direction, coming down from an opening line north of +200; I set his odds closer to a pick'em price, and would bet him down to +110.
I also lean toward the Over 1.5 rounds (-110), given the gap between my distance projection and the listed odds (projected +283, listed +300).
Projection: Tobias (50.4%)
Zerillo's Pick:
- Diyar Nurgozhay (+170, 0.35u), Fanatics; bet to +110
- Over 1.5 Rounds (-105, 0.25u), Caesars; bet to -120
