Jared Cannonier vs. Kelvin Gastelum Odds, Pick & Prediction: How to Bet UFC Fight Night Main Event (Saturday, Aug. 21)

Jared Cannonier vs. Kelvin Gastelum Odds, Pick & Prediction: How to Bet UFC Fight Night Main Event (Saturday, Aug. 21) article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Bottari / Getty Images. Pictured: Jared Cannonier

  • Two top-10 UFC middleweights -- Jared Cannonier and Kelvin Gastelum -- will go head-to-head Saturday night.
  • Both men are coming off losses entering this fight and Cannonier is a slight favorite on fight night.
  • Erich Richter details where he is finding betting value in tonight's main event.

Jared Cannonier vs. Kelvin Gastelum Odds

Cannonier Odds -155
Gastelum Odds +125
Over/Under 2.5 (-170 / +132)
Venue UFC APEX
Time Approx. 12:30 a.m. ET
Channel ESPN
Odds as of Friday and via PointsBet.

A big fight in the UFC middleweight division takes place this Saturday night when former title contender and No. 9-ranked Kelvin Gastelum faces off against No. 3-ranked Jared Cannonier in the main event on ESPN.

Kelvin Gastelum has certainly fallen on some hard times recently. He is the loser of four of his last five fights. However, all of these losses are against top competition. Cannonier is in a different stage in his career, mostly fighting at light heavyweight and now having moved down to middleweight.

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Tale of the Tape

Cannonier Gastelum
Record 13-5 17-7 (1 NC)
Avg. Fight Time 8:47 12:58
Height 5’11″” 5’9″”
Weight (pounds) 185 lbs. 185 lbs.
Reach (inches) 77″” 71″”
Stance Switch Southpaw
Date of birth 3/16/94 10/24/91
Sig Strikes Per Min 3.70 3.52
SS Accuracy 52% 42%
SS Absorbed Per Min 3.09 3.24
SS Defense 64% 57%
Take Down Avg 0.16 1.16
TD Acc 33% 37%
TD Def 54% 62%
Submission Avg 0.0 0.1

Cannonier has been an adept finisher in the UFC — five of his wins are via knockout with one coming by decision against lower competition in Ion Cutelaba. Overall, he is 1-3 when his fights go the cards.

The big question here is whether we will see Cannonier overwhelm Gastelum in the striking department to get him out of there early.

Can Cannonier really knock out a man that the middleweight champion Israel Adesanya was unable to put away? That will be tough to do against Gastelum who hasn’t been knocked out in his career.

Cannonier has some concerns in the grappling department and with his cardio, however, he should have a clear power advantage in this fight. Moreover, Cannonier used to be a light heavyweight, which is extremely important to note in this fight.

Gastelum should probably be fighting at welterweight. His problems making weight at 170 pounds forced the move to 185, but he will clearly be undersized on Saturday.

The size and striking disadvantages make me seriously worrisome for Gastelum in this fight. A size disadvantage typically makes it more difficult to land takedowns as the bigger fighter will usually be stronger.

While Gastelum is tough as nails and seemingly impossible to put away, I hesitate to assume that Gastelum will dominate the grappling and cruise to victory.

Cannonier vs. Gastelum Pick

It is possible that the war against Israel Adesanya really took years out of Kelvin’s career. That plus his size disadvantage makes it difficult for me to back him in this fight.

Most of Cannonier’s win conditions are via knockout, but I don’t project much value there either. If Cannonier’s gas tank falters, that would theoretically open the door for Kelvin to land some takedowns. Cannonier was easily out grappled by Glover Teixeira at light heavyweight, but he projects as much better wrestler than Gastelum.

The best value here is betting on a long fight. We saw Gastelum eat some of the hardest strikes from champions like Adesanya and Robert Whittaker. I trust his ability to continue that trend in this fight.

The fight to go to a decision is -102 on PointsBet. I quickly grabbed it at plus money and would bet it down to -110.

I also don’t hate a bet on either fighter to win this fight by decision, but I show much more value on Cannonier at +350. Most other books have it closer to +200, so grab that while it is still available.

The Pick: Fight to go to decision -102 | Cannonier by decision +350

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