Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway Odds, Pick & Prediction: Finding Betting Value In This Featherweight Title Fight
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: (R-L) Alexander Volkanovski of Australia eyes Max Holloway.
- Featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski (-200 betting favorite) will face Max Holloway (+163 underdog) at UFC 251 in a rematch of their title 2019 fight.
- According to our SportsInsights tools, money has been moving toward Holloway despite him being the dog. Is he the right side in this fight?
- Sean Zerillo previews the fight, including where you might find some value in the matchup.
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Max Holloway Odds
|Volkanovski odds||-200 [BET NOW]|
|Holloway odds||+163 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||4.5 (-250/+185) [BET NOW]|
|Venue||Yas Island, Abu Dhabi|
|Time||Saturday at 11:30 p.m. ET|
The UFC did not spare the star power for the first card at Fight Island and the co-main event figures to be an exciting title fight rematch of a bout that saw some insane output from both Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway.
Volkanovski enters the fight as the champ and the favorite (-210), but our SportsInsights tools show that the money is siding with the underdog Holloway (+170) ahead of tonight’s bout.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||13:55||14:08|
|Weight (pounds)||145 lbs.||145 lbs.|
|Date of birth||9/29/88||12/4/91|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||6.15||6.66|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||3.14||4.45|
|Take Down Avg||2.16||0.24|
Here’s an in-depth preview of that matchup below, including where I see some potential betting value. You can also check out my analysis of all 13 bouts here.
Volkanovski vs. Holloway Betting Pick
I was dead wrong about Holloway-Vokanovski Part 1, but I’m happy to swallow my pride and put aside my Holloway fandom for the rematch.
Volkanovski has the anticipated wrestling advantage in this matchup, but he was shut down on all four takedown opportunities by Holloway (84% career takedown defense) in their first encounter.
He landed 51% of his significant strikes, however, out-landing Max 157-134 overall, but he fell behind in the final two rounds (71-67) and personally requested a rematch – even after winning. I suppose he felt that he could do better.
Volkanovski chopped at Holloway’s lead leg early (75 total leg kicks), which forced Max to switch stances, but his stamina began to shine in the later rounds.
Volkanovski was the faster and more powerful striker during the early stages; however, when both men were fresh.
If Holloway can check those leg kicks this time around, and continue to work from a southpaw stance to avoid some of those low kicks, he could take three rounds instead of two – even while absorbing the more massive shots.
Questions are surrounding Holloway’s camp and whether he exclusively trained via Zoom. I’ll ignore that talk, as I did with Masvidal’s Pizza party, but I’ll also recognize that oddsmakers appear to have lined this one correctly; after Volkanovski won the first bout as a +140 underdog.
The crowd expects this fight to go the distance more than 77% of the time, implied odds of -334 – so there is some value compared to listed odds at -230.
Over 4.5 Rounds (-250) is an equally popular and viable bet, but I am as hesitant about betting a total as I am about backing Holloway as an underdog.
There is slight value in the winning method market – the crowd projects Volkanovski to win by decision 52.6% of the time, implied odds of -111; you can bet him at +111.
The last fight was probably closer than a 65/35 split – I would personally set the fair odds closer to 60% for Volkanovski or +150.
But Alexander the Great has superior striking efficiency (+3.01 to +2.25 strike differential) and accuracy (+13%), and he wasn’t able to fully deploy his wrestling skills last time, because he didn’t need too.
I’ll be rooting for Holloway – but I think Volkanovski by decision (+110) is the only bet offering actionable value.
Volkanovksi vs. Holloway Bets
- No Bet
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