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UFC 281 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Brad Riddell vs. Renato Moicano: Take This +330 Prop Play (Saturday, November 12)

UFC 281 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Brad Riddell vs. Renato Moicano: Take This +330 Prop Play (Saturday, November 12) article feature image
Credit:

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC lightweight Brad Riddell

  • Brad Riddell clashes with lightweight Renato Moicano in UFC 281's featured prelim on ESPNews.
  • Analyst Sean Zerillo doesn't see moneyline value on either side of the closely lined bout.
  • However, he shares his favorite prop bet below.

Brad Riddell vs. Renato Moicano Odds

Riddell Odds
+105
Moicano Odds
-125
Over/Under
2.5 (+100 / -130)
Venue
Madison Square Garden in New York City
Time
9:30 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPNews
Odds as of Friday and via DraftKings.

The UFC 281 preliminary card concludes with a lightweight bout between Brad Riddell and Renato Moicano.

The matchup is a near pick’em at the sportsbooks, but does one fighter have a clear edge?

Let’s look at how they stack up.

Tale of the Tape

Riddell Moicano
Record 10-3 16-5-1
Avg. Fight Time 12:11 9:29
Height 5’7″ 5’11”
Weight (pounds) 155 lbs. 155 lbs.
Reach (inches) 71″ 72″
Stance Orthodox Orthodox
Date of birth 9/30/1991 5/21/1989
Sig Strikes Per Min 4.73 4.80
SS Accuracy 53% 48%
SS Absorbed Per Min 3.56 4.07
SS Defense 52% 61%
Take Down Avg 1.85 1.70
TD Acc 37% 48%
TD Def 62% 73%
Submission Avg 0.0 0.6

Saturday’s featured prelim should be one of the most exciting and competitive fights at UFC 281, but it’s a difficult fight from a betting perspective.

Both fighters have shown durability concerns in recent outings. Riddell has been dropped in three consecutive bouts and finished in his two most recent fights. Moicano has three knockout losses in his past seven appearances and is coming off a potentially career-altering beating against Rafael dos Anjos at UFC 272.

Riddell is the superior striker. He offers better and more varied techniques and superior efficiency. Moicano can keep up with the volume, but Riddell should land the more impactful strikes.

Moicano has the superior defensive metrics (+9%) while Riddell is the better offensive striker (+5% accuracy, +1.17 to +0.73 strike differential).

Conversely, Moicano has all of the grappling upside in the fight. He’s the superior jiu-jitsu practitioner and capable of getting takedowns. And when Riddell gets hurt, he tends to reactively wrestle in order to recover. So if Moicano can stun Riddell on the feet, he may secure a club and sub within the same sequence.

Riddell vs. Moicano Pick

I don’t see value on either side of the moneyline or the total. However, Riddel by decision (projected +262, listed +330) and Moicano either by submission (projected +209, listed +290 at BetRivers) or inside the distance (projected +165, listed +200 at BetMGM) are value bets in the winning method market.

I’d take a small poke at Riddell’s decision prop down to +290.

Still, if you prefer the Moicano side of the fight, I don’t feel any worse about his finish props.

The Pick: Brad Riddell wins by Decision (+330, 0.2u at DraftKings)

 

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