UFC 286 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jack Shore vs. Makwan Amirkhani: Bet the Favorite at -110 Instead of -500 (Saturday, March 18)
Kieran Riley/MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC featherweight Jack Shore
Jack Shore vs. Makwan Amirkhani Odds
Although this fight could’ve easily opened the UFC 286 main card, Jack Shore vs. Makwan Amirkhani will instead serve as the featured ESPNews-televised prelim for Saturday’s event in London.
One of the hottest prospects from the U.K., Wales’ Shore has captured the hopes of many during his rise through the Cage Warriors and UFC ranks.
However, after suffering his first professional defeat last year to Ricky Simon, Shore has elected to take the advice from his inner circle in regards to returning to featherweight (as the weight cuts to bantamweight were reportedly killing him).
Shore will meet 145-pound stalwart Amirkhani, who is also looking to turn things around after sustaining a stoppage loss last year.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||12:18||9:11|
|Weight (pounds)||135 lbs.||145 lbs.|
|Date of birth||2/6/1995||11/8/1988|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||3.96||1.35|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||2.34||2.98|
|Take Down Avg||3.66||4.15|
Outside of the X-factors of a fighter moving up a division, the dynamics of most Amirkhani fights are fairly straightforward.
Despite focusing on refining his boxing for a decent stint of his UFC career, Amirkhani has seemed to revert to his old self, almost doubling down on his aggressive starts.
To his credit, Amirkhani has some real athletic gifts to go along with his skills and speed, especially when it comes to wrestling.
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└ 📂 Makwan Amirkhani@MakwanAmirkhani in some BMF company! #UFCFightIsland5 pic.twitter.com/duGirdlr8A
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A Finnish champion in Greco-Roman and freestyle wrestling, Amirkhani is quick and competent whenever operating in the open or inside of the clinch.
From fast shots to flamboyant suplexes, he can pretty much do it all. And once Amirkhani can create scrambles on the mat, you’ll start to immediately see his submission prowess come to life.
Working particularly well from front-headlock scenarios, Amirkhani can quickly change the complexion of a fight with his patent anaconda choke. That said, “Mr. Finland” will need to be at his sharpest if he means to catch Shore.
Although Shore was just submitted (in a fight where he was essentially knocked out on his feet first, mind you), the Japanese and Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt has some noted skills on the floor.
More importantly, Shore – in spite of regional stereotypes – has shown some solid looks in the wrestling department.
Offensively, Shore demonstrates a wide variety of takedown tools against the fence. And defensively, Shore shows excellent awareness when it comes to over-unders and hand-fighting (which should serve him well opposite Amirkhani).
On the feet, Shore appears to be the more diverse fighter who is steadily finding ways to apply himself in the cage.
Feeling strong. 4 weeks to go. @TheLockettMan pic.twitter.com/DCKIuFFiJa
— Jack 'Tank' Shore (@jackshoremma) February 15, 2023
Not only has Shore been using his jab more, but the 28-year-old has also been more aggressive when it comes to following with kicks and crosses from his power side.
That said, I suspect that counter right hands will be the shot that both parties need to be aware of this Saturday.
Shore vs. Amirkhani Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are siding with the fighter from Wales, listing Shore -500 and Amirkhani +400 as of this writing.
Even though the line listed above is too wide for my liking, I don’t disagree with who is favored.
I’m not sure what Shore’s ceiling will be in this division, but we’ve seen smaller, less-physical fighters like Nathaniel Wood recently look good after making similar jumps for the sake of health.
If Shore can perform even better without killing his body to make the weight, then this fight will come down to surviving the first round.
As many hardcores are aware, Amirkhani is absolute hellfire for the first five minutes of any contest. After that, however, the 34-year-old traditionally begins to fade.
For that reason, I sprinkled small of Shore to win in Round 2 and 3 (which can be found at odds ranging from +400 to +800 via FanDuel).
Still, between the wide moneylines and the current price on totals, it seems that the board is highly encouraging us to take a side on this one. I feel fairly bullish that Shore will find a finish before the final bell, but I’d warn anyone not to bank on a particular prop method.
So, Shore to win inside the distance (listed as “To Win by Finish” under the “Winning Method” tab) is the play for me.
The Pick: Jack Shore to win by finish (-110 at DraftKings) | Bet to -150
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