UFC 288 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Kron Gracie vs. Charles Jourdain: A Juicy BJJ-backed Prop Bet (Saturday, May 6)
Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC featherweight Kron Gracie of Brazil
- Out of the cage since 2019, Kron Gracie is back to fight Charles Jourdain on Saturday's UFC 288 main card.
- Gracie is an an underdog against 145-pound vet Jourdain despite his world-class jiu-jitsu.
- Below, Sean Zerillo previews the fight and explains why the underdog could be worth a play.
Kron Gracie vs. Charles Jourdain Odds
After a layoff of more than three years, Kron Gracie returns to the octagon for a meeting with the always-game Charles Jourdain at UFC 288 on Saturday.
Gracie brings a renowned grappling game to the cage, but are the rest of his skills up for the challenge of well-rounded "Air" Jourdain?
Let's look at the featherweight matchup, which kicks off the UFC 288 main card.
Tale of the Tape
| Gracie | Jourdain | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 5-1 | 13-6-1 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 8:33 | 12:57 |
| Height | 5'9" | 5'9" |
| Weight (pounds) | 145 lbs. | 145 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 70" | 69" |
| Stance | Southpaw | Switch |
| Date of birth | 7/11/1988 | 11/27/1995 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 5.15 | 5.84 |
| SS Accuracy | 41% | 49% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 8.13 | 4.56 |
| SS Defense | 53% | 58% |
| Take Down Avg | 0.88 | 0.12 |
| TD Acc | 25% | 16% |
| TD Def | 0% | 48% |
| Submission Avg | 0.9 | 0.5 |
Kron Gracie, the grandson of Helio Gracie, will return to the octagon on Saturday after a lengthy layoff following his October 2019 Fight of the Night loss to Cub Swanson.
Gracie was a significant favorite in that bout (opened -265, closed -175) and has only previously closed as an underdog against Tatsyua Kawajiri (opened +170, closed +100) in his MMA career.
Kron is one of the most decorated jiu-jitsu practitioners to ever compete at the UFC level, but his presence also connects us to the history of the sport, as well as his uncle Royce Gracie, the champion of the UFC 1, UFC 2 and UFC 4 tournaments.
Jourdain is an entertaining action fighter, but he's also a very reckless striker who will expose his back or allow his opponents to catch a kick while trying to land a flashy technique.
Jiu-jitsu practitioners aren't always great wrestlers, and Gracie (0.88 takedowns per 15 minutes, 25% accuracy) may not be able to land a power double-leg. Still, I expect him to find opportunities to put Jourdain in dangerous positions if he's patient while letting him over-commit to his offense.
Unlike a fighter such as Ryan Hall – a jiu-jitsu specialist who seems extremely chinny – Gracie has shown elite toughness and durability. He's tough to put away – or deter – and his submission game should remain a serious threat for the duration of the fight. Jourdain is also more of an attritional finisher than a one-punch knockout artist.
Gracie vs. Jourdain Pick
I like that we can bet Gracie to win by submission or inside the distance at some juicy odds. As a favorite against Swanson and Alex Caceres, those odds closed around -125 and -175, respectively.
I projected his submission line at +215 and his inside-the-distance prop (which would include an injury TKO) at +182, my preferred bet for the fight.
The Pick: Kron Gracie wins Inside the Distance (+215, 0.25u) at DraftKings
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