UFC 289 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Mike Malott vs. Adam Fugitt: Any Possible Value Resides in Live Market (Saturday, June 10)

UFC 289 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Mike Malott vs. Adam Fugitt: Any Possible Value Resides in Live Market (Saturday, June 10) article feature image

Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC featherweight Adam Fugitt

  • Welterweights Mike Malott and Adam Fugitt meet on Saturday night's UFC 289 main card.
  • Canadian fighter Malott will be the crowd favorite for the ESPN+ PPV event in Vancouver.
  • Below, Sean Zerillo breaks down the matchup and offers his best betting angle.

Mike Malott vs. Adam Fugitt Odds

Malott Odds
Fugitt Odds
2.5 (+210 / -265)
Rogers Arena in Vancouver
10:55 p.m. ET
Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings

Canadian fighter Mike Malott looks to make it 3-0 under the UFC banner and run his overall undefeated streak to seven fights as he competes in his home country at UFC 289.

Malott takes on LFA vet Adam Fugitt, who's fresh off his first UFC win.

Malott vs. Fugitt takes place at welterweight and is part of the ESPN+ PPV main card.

Which 30-something can give his UFC career a boost in this featured UFC 289 matchup? Let's jump in.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time5:547:53
Weight (pounds)170 lbs.170 lbs.
Reach (inches)73"77"
Date of birth11/7/19911/12/1989
Sig Strikes Per Min4.495.40
SS Accuracy41%58%
SS Absorbed Per Min3.485.90
SS Defense54%46%
Take Down Avg1.914.76
TD Acc42%33%
TD Def0%100%
Submission Avg1.30.0

Without many prominent Canadian fighters on the current UFC roster, the UFC will do its best to hype up Mike Malott on Saturday, putting him in the featured fight on a pay-per-view after three consecutive first-round finishes under the promotional banner, including a contract-earning performance on Contender Series.

Mike Malott’s last 4 finishes: pic.twitter.com/WMLndTc4DD

— nurMadsgomedov (@maddielilly11) June 5, 2023

We still don't know a ton about Malott as a fighter. He has 11 professional bouts, but 10 fights have ended within five minutes. His only fight to reach a decision ended in a draw (albeit in 2015).

Malott started his career at featherweight (in 2011) but has moved up to welterweight.

Malott has some power and solid offensive submission skills.

Still, Adam Fugitt likely has the wrestling advantage, potentially leaving Malott in a spot where he'll have to attempt to outstrike Fugitt, despite a four-inch reach discrepancy against a natural welterweight.

And given his wrestling background, I'd assume Fugitt has the cardio advantage too.

Malott vs. Fugitt Pick

If you're looking to bet on the Fugitt side, I will wait to play him live after Round 1, when you might find a superior number than the pre-fight price, as Malott moves beyond his typical win condition.

However, I don't see value in this fight from a pre-fight betting perspective. I set Malott as a -182 favorite; I would need something closer to +200 to back Fugitt. And I don't see an edge on the total or any winning method props, either.

Best-case scenario? Malott scores another round-one finish, and we get a tremendous price on a better opponent to fade him with.

The Pick: Adam Fugitt live after Round 1

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