UFC 292 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Chris Weidman vs. Brad Tavares: Market Too Stingy on Ex-Champ (Saturday, August 19)

UFC 292 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Chris Weidman vs. Brad Tavares: Market Too Stingy on Ex-Champ (Saturday, August 19) article feature image

Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC middleweight Chris Weidman

Chris Weidman vs. Brad Tavares Odds

Weidman Odds
Tavares Odds
2.5 (-125 / -105)
TD Garden in Boston
9:30 p.m. ET
Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via Caesars

It's a clash of UFC vets and fan favorites when middleweight mainstays Chris Weidman and Brad Tavares meet in the featured UFC 292 preliminary card bout on Saturday.

Ex-champ Weidman returns from a lengthy layoff after suffering a broken leg in a loss more than two years ago.

Tavares, meanwhile, enters his 14th year of UFC competition while looking to halt a two-fight skid.

Here's my Weidman vs. Tavares betting breakdown for UFC 292.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time9:4012:48
Weight186 pounds185 pounds
Reach78 inches74 inches
Date of birth6/17/198412/21/1987
Sig Strikes Per Minute3.033.32
SS Accuracy43%42%
SS Absorbed Per Minute3.143.06
SS Defense52%56%
Take Down Average3.920.85
TD Acc47%26%
TD Def65%80%
Submission Avg0.90.0

Unless you assume that Weidman is wholly shot – more than two years removed from one of the most widely viewed gruesome injuries of all time – it's difficult to justify him as this significant of an underdog, with 100% of the grappling upside in this matchup.

Even before the injury, Weidman's career appeared to be nearing its end. Since his final successful title defense against Vitor Belfort at UFC 187 in 2015, Weidman is just 2-5 in the promotion, with five knockout losses.

His chin had cracked, and his once-elite athleticism had regressed. And a significant leg injury – and more time removed from competition – isn't going to help (though it may be a blessing in disguise for his chin).

While Brad Tavares has been more active, he has also seemingly regressed in recent fights, wearing a ton of damage in a one-sided loss to Dricus Du Plessis before a vicious knockout – the fourth of his career – against Bruno Silva in April.

Tavares has shown solid takedown defense throughout his career (80%). Still, elite wrestlers like Yoel Romero have been able to ground him, and if Weidman's wrestling is anywhere close to where it was before his injury, I believe he can land takedowns in this fight.

Additionally, prime for prime, Weidman is the superior striker, and Tavares is much more of a point fighter than a power puncher with 10 of his 11 UFC wins by decision.

Weidman vs. Tavares Pick

While Weidman is a former champion, Tavares never cracked the elite levels at middleweight, and skill for skill, given similar health and levels of athleticism for both fighters, Weidman would be a significant favorite.

The question is how much you can bake in the injury – and the layoff – into his upcoming performance.

I projected Weidman's line closer to +200 and would bet his moneyline at +210 or better.

Additionally, you can play his decision prop (projected +394, listed +500) straight or include it in a round-robin.

The Pick: Chris Weidman (+220, 0.5u at Caesars) | Weidman wins by decision (+500, 0.1u at DraftKings)

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