UFC 293 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Justin Tafa vs. Austen Lane: Underdog Worth a Poke in Rematch (Saturday, September 9)

UFC 293 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Justin Tafa vs. Austen Lane: Underdog Worth a Poke in Rematch (Saturday, September 9) article feature image

Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: Heavyweight Justin Tafa of New Zealand

Justin Tafa vs. Austen Lane Odds

Tafa Odds
Lane Odds
Total (Over/Under)
1.5 rounds (+176 / -230)
Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia
Start Time
11 p.m. ET
Odds as of Friday and via FanDuel

After their first meeting was halted in 29 seconds due to an accidental eye-poke, they'll do it again with Justin Tafa vs. Austen Lane on Saturday's UFC 293 main card.

Tafa couldn't continue after getting his eyeball tickled in their June bout, and the heavy hitter now looks to halt his official two-fight losing skid.

The New Zealander will do so against former NFL player Lane, who – like Tafa – has a 100% finishing rate in his MMA victories.

Let's predict the main-card rematch of Tafa vs. Lane at UFC 293.

Tale of the Tape

Avg. Fight Time5:222:00
Weight265.2 pounds242.3 pounds
Reach (inches)74"80"
Date of birth12/13/199311/9/1987
Sig Strikes Per Minute5.024.33
SS Accuracy54%46%
SS Absorbed Per Minute5.951.67
SS Defense49%62%
Take Down Average0.000.00
TD Acc0%0%
TD Def100%0%
Submission Average0.00.0

I projected Tafa as a 62.6% favorite in the first fight – essentially the same line I made for the rematch while pulling new projection data from the same data sources.

Tafa closed around -190 for the first fight – and subsequently knocked out Parker Porter, whom his brother Junior also beat a couple of weeks ago – and is now sitting closer to -215 in the rematch with Lane.

That's an increase of nearly 3% in implied win probability despite 66 seconds of additional fight time while hitting the same win condition he has continually met in the past (early knockout).

That's one baaaaaad man 😳@Justin_Tafa bringing the POWER to Saturday's #UFC293 main card! pic.twitter.com/uQwV9TFMRf

— UFC (@ufc) September 8, 2023

Lane is the bigger and better athlete (a six-inch advantage in both height and reach), but Tafa is the far more dangerous striker with swift and powerful hands.

Still, Tafa's game falls apart when he can't put opponents away early and his fights extend.

Tafa vs. Lane Pick

Tafa has subpar cardio and zero grappling ability.

And he can get outpaced by more active opponents over 15 minutes.

Given the price adjustment relative to the first booking, bet Lane pre-fight at +175 or better (projected +167) and look to add more live after Round 1.

The Picks: Austen Lane (+186, 0.5u at FanDuel) | Austen Lane Live after Round 1

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