UFC 293 Parlays: Picks Include 13-1 All-Knockout Parlay, +425 Tai Tuivasa SGP (Saturday, September 9)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC heavyweight Tai Tuivasa of Australia
For many MMA fans, fight night wouldn't be complete without a UFC 293 parlay bet or two to sweat.
UFC 293 takes place on Saturday at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia. Following prelims on ESPN+ (6:30 p.m. ET) and then ESPNews (8 p.m. ET), the five-fight UFC 293 main card kicks off on ESPN+ PPV at 10 p.m. ET.
Heading into UFC 293 tonight, we've been successful in each of the last two marquee events in cashing at least one of our two parlay varieties.
There are plenty of fights this week not expected to hit the scorecards with eight of the 12 bouts at UFC 293 favored to end inside the distance.
Let’s dive in and find the value in the all-violence parlay of the week, as well as a same game parlay (SGP), for Saturday's big UFC 293: Adeanya vs. Strickland pay-per-view card.
UFC 293 Parlay
First, let's start with an all-violence parlay for UFC 293.
It's a three-legger with a trio of fighters I expect to win via knockout. This one is available at FanDuel.
Parlay Leg 1: Jack Jenkins to win by KO/TKO (+300)
We will know early on in the night if we are live for another big payout.
Jack Jenkins is a top-notch prospect being dealt at too short of odds in my opinion. Chepe Mariscal survived the storm that is Trevor Peek, but he is now dealing with a much more technical fighter who can surgically dismantle him over the course of 15 minutes.
I do not expect an early finish necessarily, but as Jenkins continues to punish the lower body of Mariscal with leg kicks, he will look to pour it on in the second and third rounds. Mariscal has been knocked out three times in his MMA career, coincidentally by three fighters who happen to be on the current UFC roster.
Jenkins will make a statement Saturday night, and we are getting a great price to back him.
Parlay Leg 2: Carlos Ulberg by KO/TKO (-125)
Carlos Ulberg and his opponent Jung Da-un actually matchup quite similarly when it comes to the tale of the tape and striking defense. The difference in this bout will be the power and output of these fighters.
Da-un lands an abysmal 42% of his strikes at only 3.39 strikes per minute while the more explosive Ulberg lands at a 62% clip with more than double his output at 8.13 strikes per minute.
This is a pretty straightforward handicap: Ulberg has finished three consecutive opponents with strikes, and his opponent simply does not have the durability to withstand an early onslaught if he cannot get the fight to the mat and maintain control.
This fight is lined at 1.5 rounds instead of 2.5 rounds for good reason.
Parlay Leg 3: Israel Adesanya by KO/TKO (+100)
If Sean Strickland decides to implement a more pressuring style in this fight to truly go for the victory, he will get finished on Saturday night. While being sound defensively, it will not be enough to survive five rounds with one of the better counter-strikers we have seen in UFC history.
Strickland is quite durable, but champion Israel Adesanya is operating at a level where he should be favored to land fight-ending strikes against just about every middleweight in the world.
Oddsmakers see the writing on the wall, dealing an implied 62% chance this contest doesn't see the scorecards..
UFC 293 All-Violence Parlay: +1340 at FanDuel
UFC 293 Same Game Parlay
Same-game parlays in the UFC give bettors a tremendous opportunity to correlate fight results and create value. The UFC 293 co-main event on Saturday night between Alexander Volkov and Tai Tuivasa presents another opportunity for us to do just that.
I am not one to usually handicap a home-field advantage in MMA, but it is difficult to envision a fight in which Tuivasa isn’t feeding off the Australian crowd. His willingness to engage in a brawl and put himself in danger increases in this type of environment.
If this fight were booked directly after Tuivasa’s hard-fought loss to world-class striker Ciryl Gane, the line on this bout would be much closer to a pick'em.
Dropping consecutive fights to two of the best three heavyweights in the world isn’t anything to be ashamed of, and it is the exact reason we have a chance to attack this wrongly priced line.
Volkov has proven durable throughout his career, but he is not untouchable. He has been rocked and finished by powerful punchers before, and his best days are behind him despite his two-fight winning streak against tailor-made opponents.
I am going to back the underdog here to land the meme punch of the night. The crowd will hopefully be doing shoeys and we'll be cashing this ticket.
Thus, my UFC 293 same-game parlay is: