UFC 300 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Jessica Andrade vs. Marina Rodriguez: Big Bounce-Back Spot for Ex-Champ (Saturday, April 13)
Leandro Bernardes via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC strawweight Jessica Andrade
Jessica Andrade vs. Marina Rodriguez Odds
Here's everything you need to know about the Jessica Andrade vs. Marina Rodriguez odds at UFC 300 on Saturday, April 13 – our expert UFC prediction and pick.
Saturday's UFC 300 early preliminary card features No. 4-ranked UFC strawweight contender Jessica Andrade taking on No. 6 Marina Rodriguez in a key 115-pound women's fight.
After opening around a pick'em, Andrade is now priced as a moderate -141 favorite while Rodriguez returns at +122 (Caesars Sportsbook) at the time of this writing.
I agree with the steam, and here is how I will be backing the favorite in my Andrade vs. Rodriguez preview for UFC 300.
Tale of the Tape
| Andrade | Rodriguez | |
|---|---|---|
| Record | 25-12 | 17-3-2 |
| Avg. Fight Time | 9:11 | 14:03 |
| Height | 5'1" | 5'6" |
| Weight (pounds) | 116 lbs. | 116 lbs. |
| Reach (inches) | 62" | 65" |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Date of birth | 9/25/1991 | 4/29/1987 |
| Sig Strikes Per Min | 6.67 | 4.77 |
| SS Accuracy | 50% | 48% |
| SS Absorbed Per Min | 5.36 | 2.89 |
| SS Defense | 54% | 56% |
| Take Down Avg | 2.45 | 0.25 |
| TD Acc | 54% | 42% |
| TD Def | 72% | 66% |
| Submission Avg | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Andrade has continued to hop between the flyweight and strawweight divisions, and she is just 1-2 in her latest return to 115 pounds. That's why this fight likely opened as a toss-up, but analyzing those losses is why the steam is moving in her direction.
Those two losses came against Tatiana Suarez and Yan Xiaonan, two of the best 115-pound fighters on the planet. Xiaonan is the No. 1-ranked strawweight contender and will fight Zhang Weili for the belt on Saturday in the UFC 300 co-main event.
Meanwhile, Suarez is next in line at that No. 2 spot and has never lost a professional MMA fight.
With all due respect to Rodriguez, who is very good in her own right, she is just simply not on the level of Xiaonan and Suarez at the moment.
You might read that and immediately say, "But how can you say that given that Rodriguez beat Xiaonan at UFC 272?" That is a fair question, but when you watch that fight back, Xiaonan probably should have won on the cards in what was a close bout.
I also think Xiaonan has only improved since then while the older Rodriguez has gone on to lose two of her next three bouts. The latest loss was to Virna Jandiroba, who dominated on the mat en route to a clear decision victory.
That is why I believe Saturday presents another great bounce-back spot for Andrade, a former champion who lost the belt to Weili back in 2019. Andrade is going to be the much smaller but stockier fighter, given that she is five inches shorter than Rodriguez.
This differential calls for a wrestling game plan, and I think her camp will mimic Jandiroba's performance in order to secure an effortless decision victory to put Andrade back into the title mix.
Andrade vs. Rodriguez Pick
As far as how this fight could end, oddsmakers are expecting the judges' scorecards here as the "goes the distance" (GTD) prop hovers around -135 across the board.
That thinking aligns with my prediction that Andrade will follow a wrestling game plan, which is how she'll make up for the height and reach disadvantage she faces against Rodriguez.
We know Andrade has the talent to coast to a wrestling victory, given that is how she beat Tecia Torres, Claudia Gadelha and Sarah Moras.
On the other hand, Rodriguez just proved to us that she can beaten this way with her performance against Jandiroba, who is good in her own right but probably not Andrade-good.
With a 66% takedown defense since joining the UFC, Rodriguez will eventually find herself pinned on the mat, and I believe Andrade is strong enough to keep her there for the majority of this fight.
The Pick: Jessica Andrade by Decision (+255 at BetRivers)
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