UFC 300 Odds & Predictions for All 13 Fights: Sean Zerillo’s Betting Preview (Saturday, April 13)

UFC 300 Odds & Predictions for All 13 Fights: Sean Zerillo’s Betting Preview (Saturday, April 13) article feature image
Credit:

Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC announcer Bruce Buffer

Check out all of my UFC 300 odds and my predictions for all 13 fights for Saturday's pay-per-view event and the Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill main event.

Below, I break down and predict each bout on the UFC 300 card, which takes place tonight at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Here's how to watch UFC 300: The preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET (3 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ before moving to ESPN at 8 p.m. ET. The five-fight main card then kicks off at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+ pay-per-view (cost: $79.99).

After examining all betting options, a typical UFC card can offer substantial actionable value. And UFC 300 is no exception.

So, in addition to moneylines and over/unders, I'll break down how I plan to bet on all the fights on the historic UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill fight card, including exact winning methods, winning round props, and whether or not the match will go to a decision or finish inside the distance.

Fight times are approximate and subject to change. All times ET.

Click on a fight to skip ahead
1. Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Cody Garbrandt
6 p.m. ET
2. Bobby Green vs. Jim Miller
6:30 p.m. ET
3. Jessica Andrade vs. Marina Rodriguez
7 p.m. ET
4. Jalin Turner vs. Renato Moicano
7:30 p.m. ET
5. Sodiq Yusuff vs. Diego Lopes
8 p.m. ET
6. Holly Holm vs. Kayla Harrison
8:30 p.m. ET
7. Calvin Kattar vs. Aljamain Sterling
9 p.m. ET
8. Jiri Prochazka vs. Aleksandar Rakic
9:30 p.m. ET
9. Bo Nickal vs. Cody Brundage
10 p.m. ET
10. Charles Oliveira vs. Arman Tsarukyan
10:30 p.m. ET
11. Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway
11 p.m. ET
12. Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan
11:30 p.m. ET
13. Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill
11:59 p.m. ET

UFC 300 Projected Odds

Below, you can find my fair odds moneyline projection for each of Saturday's 13 bouts. In the next section, you'll discover forecasts for those fights to finish inside the distance or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission.

UFC 300 matchup odds as of Saturday evening and via DraftKings

UFC 300 Prop Projections

In addition to creating a crowdsourced projection for moneyline plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, enabling us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance or for each fighter to win inside of the distance.

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UFC 300 Odds & Predictions

Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Cody Garbrandt

Bantamweight BoutOdds
Deiveson Figueiredo Odds-380
Cody Garbrandt Odds+300
Over/under rounds1.5 (-190 / +145)

Crowdsourced Projections: Deiveson Figueiredo (74.7%) 

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Cody Garbrandt preview from my colleague John LanFranca.

I fully agree with John's assessment of this matchup – which was initially supposed to take place for the flyweight title at UFC 255.

Garbrandt is the taller man and the quicker athlete. Still, Figueiredo is the more durable and dangerous fighter. He possesses a three-inch reach advantage, which could be crucial for landing counters as Garbrandt exits the pocket.

Garbrandt's durability has declined significantly throughout his MMA career, and he's continued to react poorly to clean strikes from opponents in recent wins over the likes of Trevin Jones. I think about his most recent knockout loss constantly:

Figueredo is also the more calculated fighter; he'll use calf kicks to slow Garbrandt's movement and eventually find the range with his hands. Additionally, Figueredo's cardio improved in his first fight at 135 against Rob Font since he's no longer draining himself to cut down to flyweight.

I projected this fight to end inside the distance around 69% of the time (-219 implied), and I see value in the ends inside the distance prop (listed -175) or the Under 2.5 rounds.

However, most of that finish equity is tied to Figueredo; I set his odds to win inside the distance at -127 (56% implied) and would bet that prop to about -120.

While I also like Figueiredo to win by KO/TKO (projected +143, listed +180), Garbrandt tends to get wobbled badly before getting finished, and I could see the Brazilian slapping on his nasty guillotine choke – against an opponent who may shoot a reactive takedown – to finish the fight.

Bets

  • Deiveison Figueiredo wins Inside the Distance (-105, 0.5u) at DraftKings


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Bobby Green vs. Jim Miller

Lightweight BoutOdds
Bobby Green Odds-185
Jim Miller Odds+154
Over/under rounds2.5 (-130 / +110)

Crowdsourced Projections: Bobby Green (62.3%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Jim Miller vs. Bobby Green preview from my colleague Dann Stupp.

With how I handicap these fights, Miller – in addition to Jiri Prochazka and Charles Oliveira – is one of three trendy underdog selections this week. Fans and bettors are selecting Miller to win this fight between 54% and 68% of the time, even though his implied odds are closer to 40%.

Miller is a legend of the sport and has competed on all of the UFC's centennial cards. And his opponent, Bobby Green, is five months removed from one of the latest stoppages in UFC history; he took a ton of unnecessary damage against Jalin Turner.

Now 37 years old, Green has been finished in his past three losses, and these fighters have more than 100 professional MMA bouts combined.

Green is the superior boxer with better output and cardio, but Miller has the power advantage, the better kicking game, and the offensive grappling upside in this matchup.

As a result, while I'm prepared to bet against the other public underdogs on this card, I see a clear argument for Miller; Green hasn't looked as sharp in his recent performances anyway, and that recent knockout loss could lead to a further decline in athleticism.

Ultimately, I don't see value on either side of the moneyline, but I do like this fight to reach a decision 57% of the time – more often than the betting odds suggest.

I'm not particularly inclined to place many or any Over wagers or distance props on this card, with the UFC handing out $300,000 performance bonuses. Still, I expect a more drawn-out affair in a matchup between two calculated veterans.

Bet the Over 2.5 Rounds to -135, or the distance prop to -120. I expect a close and competitive fight and a potential split decision.

I'd consider including Miller to win by decision (projected +489, listed +500) on round-robin tickets.

Bets

  • Over 2.5 Rounds (-125, Risk 0.5u) at WynnBet

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Jessica Andrade vs. Marina Rodriguez

Women's Strawweight BoutOdds
Jessica Andrade Odds-148
Marina Rodriguez Odds+124
Over/under rounds2.5 (-140 / +110)

Crowdsourced Projections: Jessica Andrade (54.1%) 

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Jessica Andrade vs. Marina Rodriguez preview from my colleague Tony Sartori.

I lean toward Rodriguez and the Over in this matchup. Still, my projections don't necessarily justify a bet on either outcome at current prices. I'd probably want at least +130 to take Rodriguez on the moneyline (projected +118) and -120 to bet the fight to reach a decision.

Additionally, while I project slight value on Rodriguez to win via decision (projected +211, listed +255), I hesitate to poke that prop.

Rodriguez is the taller (5") and longer (3") fighter and the more technical striker. Andrade is the more powerful striker and retains all the grappling upside in this matchup.

Rodriguez has shown subpar takedown defense (66%) and spent a lot of time getting controlled by smaller opponents. As a result, while Andrade doesn't have the best top control, she should be able to muscle Rodriguez to the mat and mix her superior offensive skillset.

Rodriguez prefers a distance striking matchup, where she can use her length and superior technique to pick apart a smaller opponent.

Andrade won't give her a clean fight, however; the former strawweight champion will make things gritty. Aside from her loss to Yan Xiaonan, all of Andrade's recent losses have come against fighters who out-grappled her.

Andrade's physicality should prove the difference in this fight. While she has significantly more experience than Rodriguez, she's also four years younger, and Rodriguez's athleticism has seemingly been waning in her late 30s.

I'll wait to see if we get a better price to bet on this fight – either on Rodriguez or the distance prop.

Bets

  • Wait for +130 on Marina Rodriguez
  • Wait for -120 on the Goes To Decision Prop


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Jalin Turner vs. Renato Moicano

Lightweight BoutOdds
Jalin Turner Odds-238
Renato Moicano Odds+195
Over/under rounds1.5 (-105 / -125)

Crowdsourced Projections: Jalin Turner (70.3%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Jalin Turner vs. Renato Moicano preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

Whether Turner will hit the divisional limit at weigh-ins is always questionable. "The Tarantula" has a significant size advantage over the majority of the 155-pound division and will stand four inches taller, with a five-inch reach advantage against former featherweight Renato Moicano.

Turner has a highly well-rounded skill set. He's a dangerous and powerful striker but has shown slick submission skills with his long limbs. And he did significantly better with his defensive wrestling and grappling against the relentless Mateusz Gamrot than anyone anticipated.

Moicano has excellent jiu-jitsu and a lethal rear-naked choke, but his offensive wrestling is suspect. It will be much more challenging to secure a body triangle against a long opponent like Turner than it may be against regular-sized lightweights.

As a result, Moicano may struggle to get his game going until Turner tires, which is typically around the 10-minute mark of the fight. While Turner lost a split decision to Gamrot – and stayed competitive throughout – he's never won a fight that has reached the third round.

I don't necessarily project value on any betting angle for this fight, but I'd pick Turner to win inside the distance (projected -148, listed -160). I'd take -150 or better on that finish prop, or I'd consider betting Turner to win in Rounds 1 or 2 (-120 listed).

You could structure a bet with Turner to win in Round 1 (+180) or Round 2 (+430) at different exposures. For example, you could bet 0.3u on Turner in Round 1 (to win 0.54u) and bet 0.15u on Turner in Round 2 (to win 0.65u) and come out with between 0.35u and 0.4u if one of those hits.

However, I'd be stretching the odds to place a bet that I likely quantify as -EV. Other than that round prop structure, I'd pass on this fight and load up on Turner in DFS.

Bets

  • Jalin Turner wins in Rounds 1 or 2 (-120, 0.25u) at DraftKings

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Sodiq Yusuff vs. Diego Lopes

Featherweight BoutOdds
Sodiq Yusuff Odds+120
Diego Lopes Odds-142
Over/under rounds2.5 (+130 / -163)

Crowdsourced Projections: Diego Lopes (63.1%)

Soqid Yusuff is the lone underdog moneyline I circled for Saturday's card.

His opponent, Diego Lopes, has garnered a ton of hype. He overperformed as a massive underdog in a short-notice debut against Movsar Evloev before finishing both Gavin Tucker and Pat Sabatini inside two minutes.

Lopes is a highly aggressive and dangerous fighter, particularly in grappling. He throws powerful, winging hooks on the feet and has a nasty uppercut, but he's not particularly technical. On the mat, he prefers to work off his back and has yet to attempt a takedown in his three fights.

Yusuff has been wobbled in several fights – and can get clipped in an exchange. Still, he's the far more technical striker and the likelier minute-winner on the feet over extended stretches. Moreover, Yusuff rarely looks to grapple unless he is tired or hurt, and Lopes will need to initiate takedowns in this fight if he wants to play to his strengths.

Yusuff nearly finished Edson Barboza in his first main event appearance before fading over the remainder of that matchup. While that was a subpar effort down the stretch from "Super" Sodiq, I like him dialing back to a 15-minute matchup after extending his cardio across a five-round fight.

Moreover, he's taking a step down in competition and getting offered plus money after his hype train was derailed, while Lopes is taking a step up in competition – and facing a serious striker for the first time in the UFC – with his hype train at full steam.

As a result, I like Yusuff to win this matchup – likely via knockout. Evloev didn't have the power to put away Lopes, but Yusuff hits significantly harder. I view him as the more consistent minute-winner across a 15-minute fight, though Lopes can take a decision with big moments at opportune times.

I projected his moneyline at +113; place that bet down to +120.

Bets

  • Sodiq Yusuff (+125, 0.5u) at DraftKings

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Holly Holm vs. Kayla Harrison

Women's Bantamweight BoutOdds
Holly Holm Odds+350
Kayla Harrison Odds-455
Over/under rounds2.5 (-130 / +100)

Crowdsourced Projections: Kayla Harrison (81%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Holly Holm vs. Kayla Harrison preview from my colleague Bryan Fonseca.

If I had handicapped the fighters least likely to make weight on Friday, Kayla Harrison would have been the odds-on favorite. Still, the former two-time PFL 155-pound lightweight champion made the 135-pound bantamweight limit without issue.

Harrison, a two-time Olympic gold medalist in judo, is a similar stylistic matchup to the opponent who Holly Holm made her name off of: Ronda Rousey.

Still, that fight was nine years ago, and Holm – now 42 – has become more reliant on grappling at this stage of her career.

Harrison is 10 years younger than Holm, and when there is at least a decade age gap between UFC combatants, the younger fighter has won 70% of the time at average odds of -138, or 58% implied, 12% above expectation.

Moreover, Harrison should be significantly stronger, heavier and more physical than Holm, and she may only need one takedown to finish the fight. If Harrison gains mount, look for her to leverage up and land elbows, a strike that's banned under the PFL ruleset but which she deployed aggressively in Invicta FC:

Holm has shown solid takedown defense (78%) throughout her career. Still, her athleticism has severely declined relative to her peak, and her bottom game – once she's put flat on the mat – is a deficiency relative to her overall skill set.

However, Holm is the more technical striker and may have the cardio advantage if this fight extends; Harrison is cutting significant weight to make this debut because the UFC has disbanded its 145-pound featherweight division, and there's a potential that she gasses out badly – and gets finished – in the second half of this fight.

As a result, while I project value on Harrison to win inside the distance (projected +106, listed +130), I'd prefer to bet the fight to end inside the distance (projected -123, listed +100) at -110 or better.

I'll likely save the Harrison ITD prop for round-robin consideration.

Keep an eye on the flow of this fight, too. If the fight extends and Harrison is tiring after 10 minutes, Holm may be worth a live bet before the final round.

Bets

  • Fight ends Inside the Distance (+100, 0.5u) at DraftKings


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Calvin Kattar vs. Aljamain Sterling

Featherweight BoutOdds
Calvin Kattar Odds+142
Aljamain Sterling Odds-170
Over/under rounds2.5 (-180 / +140)

Crowdsourced Projections: Aljamain Sterling (59.8%)

Former UFC bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling will move up to featherweight to take on top contender Calvin Kattar, who is returning from a right ACL tear that he sustained in a fight in October 2022.

Sterling, who is entering after a knockout loss against Sean O'Malley, was cutting significant weight to make 135 pounds and looks tremendously healthier and stronger moving up a division.

Sterling has an extremely well-rounded skill set and is one of the best back-takers in this sport. Still, while he's found success in the standup (+2.4 significant strike differential per minute) against other talented strikers, he typically had a reach advantage at bantamweight. However, that wasn't true against O'Malley – where Sterling struggled to find takedown entries, and Kattar has the same reach as Suga Sean (1" advantage over Sterling).

As a result, Sterling may be able to touch Kattar with kicks and use his funky movement to keep the New England native off-balance. Still, Kattar is the vastly superior boxer and should be able to find success with his hands, even though Sterling has excellent striking defense (58%).

That said, Kattar isn't very accurate (39% striking accuracy) or efficient (-2.3 strikes landed per minute), though the latter sample is skewed by his one-sided loss to Max Holloway (out-landed 445-133).

Additionally, Kattar is a 36-year-old fighter – five years above the divisional average – returning from a lengthy layoff following a significant injury. There's a chance he's severely declined athletically from his previous form.

I'd expect Sterling to look to start aggressively – as he did against Cory Sandhagen – and immediately look to grapple and take Kattar's back. Kattar has solid first-layer takedown defense (91% career). Still, Sterling excels at turning all of his fights into grappling matches, and Kattar's bottom game is a relative mystery, though we haven't seen much success from his teammate, Rob Font, on the bottom either.

If Sterling finds the back, it's typically a wrap for his opponents. If Sterling can't get the fight to the mat, however, Kattar should have opportunities to land boxing combinations – or overhand elbows – and close the show himself.

We are SO ready for the return of @CalvinKattar!!

He headlines the first event of 2022 on January 15th 🔥 pic.twitter.com/CiciVABLBe

— UFC Canada (@UFC_CA) December 23, 2021

I don't project value on either side of the moneyline, but I do expect this fight to end inside the distance nearly half the time (49%, +104 implied), much more frequently than the odds (+155 listed) suggest.

I also project value both on Sterling to win by submission (projected +378, listed +480) or Kattar by KO/TKO (projected +397, listed +500) for round-robin consideration.

Bets

  • Fight ends Inside the Distance (+155, 0.5u) at WynnBet

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Jiri Prochazka vs. Aleksandar Rakic

Light Heavyweight BoutOdds
Jiri Prochazka Odds-102
Aleksandar Rakic Odds-118
Over/under rounds2.5 (+124 / -160)

Crowdsourced Projections: Aleksandr Rakic (58.7%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's featured prelim, check out the full Jiri Prochazka vs. Aleksandr Rakic preview from my colleague Billy Ward.

Former light heavyweight champion Prochazka is an extremely exciting fighter and a trendy underdog selection this week. Fans and bettors are picking Prochazka to win this fight between 64-85% of the time, compared to a pick'em price on the moneyline.

While Aleksandar Rakic is returning from an ACL injury and hasn't been in the UFC octagon in nearly two years, I do feel better about his recovery timeline relative to Calvin Kattar (same injury) or Jamahal Hill; Rakic was initially booked to rematch Jan Blachowicz at UFC 297 in January before Blachowicz pulled out of the fight.

As a result, Rakic has had an additional three months to recover, and he should be as close to 100% as possible, given the typical timeline for ACL repairs.

Rakic excels at the two things that can cause Prochazka problems: leg kicks and top control.

Prochazka fights out of a karate stance and leaves himself wide open to calf kicks. His leg got chewed up in his last fight against Alex Pereira, which forced Prochazka to move forward and create a finishing sequence.

While Rakic may be hesitant to throw those kicks after injuring his knee the last time he was in the octagon, he did come into that fight against Jan after injuring the knee in camp. Hopefully, he'll feel free to let those kicks go now that it's surgically repaired.

Moreover, while Rakic isn't a particularly proactive wrestler or active when he gets on top of opponents, he's physically strong and can keep opponents down once he puts them flat on the mat.

Additionally, Rakic is likely the more durable fighter in this matchup. Prochazka is extremely hittable (40% striking defense) but has been wobbled in all of his UFC fights – he was even briefly knocked out before recovering in his win over Dominick Reyes.

Prochazka is the far more dangerous and unpredictable striker. He carries impressive volume, and his unorthodox style makes him almost impossible to prepare for.

Still, a healthy Rakic has the tools to trouble and frustrate Prochazka. And he's shown that he doesn't mind pursuing a boring but effective game plan if it generates a win (holding Anthony Smith down for over 80% of their fight).

I projected Rakic's moneyline closer to -140 in this matchup and would bet him up to about -130 pre-fight.

I'd also potentially add a live bet on Rakic after Round 1. He may show cage rust and start slowly after a significant layoff, but if he's throwing calf kicks, the attritional damage should catch up with Prochazka in the later rounds.

Bets

  • Aleksandar Rakic (-110, 0.5u) at Caeaars
  • Aleksandar Rakic Live after Round 1

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Bo Nickal vs. Cody Brundage

Middleweight BoutOdds
Bo Nickal Odds-1450
Cody Brundage Odds+850
Over/under rounds1.5 (+240 / -330)

Crowdsourced Projections: Bo Nickal (91.3%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's main card opener, check out the full Bo Nickal vs. Cody Brundange preview from my colleague Dann Stupp.

Top prospect Nickal will open the main card at UFC 300, though many wish he were getting a legitimate test instead of another potential layup.

While Brundange comes from a wrestling background and has legitimate power at middleweight, he's likely to get overwhelmed by Nickal in the grappling, and his cardio falls off a cliff after five minutes.

Nickal has finished all five of his MMA opponents within three minutes, so his skill set – or cardio – in an extended fight is still a mystery. The Under 1.5 rounds have been juiced north of -300 in all of his UFC bouts, and his moneyline has closed at -1300 or higher in those fights, too.

From a moneyline perspective, you'd have to bet Brundage or pass; at this price point, you're getting into banana-peel territory. Moreover, Nickal wouldn't be the first wrestler to gas out going deeper into an MMA fight.

Brundage by KO/TKO (projected +1816, listed +2000) is equally actionable, though I'm not interested in betting either.

Eventually, Nickal will be extended by a UFC-calibre fighter, and we'll learn a lot more about his overall skillset. I'm not interested in taking the Over 1.5 Rounds – but might be against a better opponent at a similar price point; if anything, I'd look to bet Nickal to win in Rounds 2 or 3 due to Brundage's tendency to collapse after a decent first round.

We'll hope for an early second-round finish and a similar price on the Over 1.5 rounds for Nickal's next fight against a better foe than Brundage.

Bets

  • Bo Nickal wins in Round 2 (+410, 0.15u) at FanDuel
  • Bo Nickal wins in Round 3 (+1600, 0.05u) at FanDuel


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Charles Oliveira vs. Arman Tsarukyan

Lightweight BoutOdds
Charles Oliveira Odds+185
Arman Tsarukyan Odds-225
Over/under rounds1.5 (-135 / +105)

Crowdsourced Projections: Arman Tsarukyan (70.6%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of this matchup, check out the full Charles Oliveira vs. Arman Tsarukyan preview from my colleague Tony Sartori.

Oliveira is one of the most popular fighters on the UFC roster, and he's an equally popular underdog selection this week; fans and bettors are picking "Do Bronx: to upset Tsarukyan between 65-73% of the time, compared to implied odds nearer to 37%.

It seems inevitable that Tsarukyan and current lightweight champion Islam Makhachev are destined for a rematch; Tsarukyan lost a close decision to Makhachev in a short-notice UFC debut while Makhachev made quicker work of Oliveira.

Oliveira is the taller (3") and longer (2") fighter and the more dangerous striker and submission grappler. Still, Tsarukyan is a much more durable athlete. He has a clear wrestling advantage and should be able to dictate where the fight occurs.

Oliveira is happy to accept takedowns and either scramble or throw up submissions from guard. However, Tsarukyan has shown an ability to get on top of opponents, consolidate positions, and ride out control positions for extended stretches of the fight.

If these grapplers start swinging on the feet, Oliveira is more technical, but his chin is always vulnerable to getting clipped. Tsarukyan, who is not a particularly potent finisher, still has ample power to shut his lights off.

Oliveira is rarely in a boring fight, but Tsarukyan's optimal path to victory is the most boring possible outcome for this matchup: extended control time.

I lean toward the Over 1.5 Rounds and for Tsarukyan to win by decision (projected +245, listed +370).

Still, I'd prefer to bet Tsarukyan on the moneyline (projected -240) at -220 or better. If he lands clean once on Oliveira, it could be the end of the fight.

Bets

  • Arman Tsarukyan (-200, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM

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Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway

Lightweight BoutOdds
Justin Gaethje Odds-155
Max Holloway Odds+130
Over/under rounds4.5 (-115 / -115)

Crowdsourced Projections: Justin Gaethje (56%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of the BMF title fight, check out the full Justin Gaethje vs. Max Holloway preview from my colleague Dan Tom.

I lean with Dan toward the underdog Holloway on the moneyline (projected +127). Still, Holloway opened north of +200 in this fight, with Gaethje as nearly a -280 favorite (73.7% implied), and the line has crashed more than 10% toward the underdog side.

While I'll consider betting Holloway pre-fight, I'd prefer to wait until Live after Round 1. Gaethje is the bigger man and should have a significant power advantage in this matchup, similar to the power advantage that Dustin Poirier showed in his 2019 win over Holloway.

Holloway is the faster athlete and superior technician, providing more output (7.3 to 6.8 strikes landed per minute at distance). Gaethje's power advantage in his hands and low kicks should sway the judges in competitive rounds.

Holloway is likely the more durable fighter – he's never been knocked down in his UFC career. Meanwhile, Gaethje has shown vulnerability to body shots in his losses against Charles Oliveira and Dustin Poirier. Oliveira also knocked him down after a body-head combination.

Unless Gaethje's leg kicks shut down Holloway's movement, I expect Holloway to take over at some point in the latter half of his fight. Max tends to pull away from all opponents with cardio and output down the stretch of his 25-minute bouts, but ripping Gaethje to the body should help widen that potential cardio gap.

Conversely, if Gaethje does land his powerful low kicks, Holloway's movement may be compromised, and he could find himself eating bigger shots than he is typically accustomed to absorbing. At some point, every chin cracks, and Holloway has taken enormous damage throughout his career.

Bet Holloway small pre-fight to +140 and look for a live entry anytime after Round 1; he should win the later rounds at a higher clip than the early rounds.

I will take the fight to end inside the distance (projected -144) up to -130 and consider including Holloway by KO/TKO (projected +549, listed +650) in a longshot round-robin.

Bets

  • Fight ends Inside the Distance (-115, 0.5u) at Caesars
  • Max Holloway (+143, 0.25u) at Caesars
  • Max Holloway Live Anytime after Round 1

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Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan

Women's Strawweight BoutOdds
Zhang Weili Odds-520
Yan Xiaonan Odds+390
Over/under rounds3.5 (-140 / +110)

Crowdsourced Projections: Zhang Weili (81.1%)

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of the strawweight title bout, check out the full Zhang Weili vs. Yan Xiaonan preview from my colleague Dan Tom.

Zhang opened closer to a -325 favorite (76.5% implied) in this matchup, but her line has steamed past -500 (83.3% implied) as of writing – and may continue to tick up closer to fight time.

While this fight could be close and competitive on the feet, Zhang has an "I Win" button anytime she grapples in this matchup.

Xiaonan has bad takedown defense (66%) and a highly suspect bottom game; losing to Carla Esparza via ground and pound was a terrible look.

While Zhang isn't the most technical wrestler and doesn't have excellent submission skills either, she has shown the desire to proactively grapple when she has the advantage (she landed six of seven takedowns for 16 minutes of control time against Amanda Lemos).

I expect Zhang to gain mount and finish this fight from the top position, but I'm unsure whether she'll opt for ground and pound or hunt for a submission.

I don't project value on Zhang inside the distance (projected +105, listed -125), but that would be my prediction.

However, I show a slight edge on Zhang by submission (projected +393, listed +500 at BetMGM). I'd play that prop for small stakes or include it as a round-robin leg.

Bets

  • Weili Zhang wins by Submission (+500, 0.1u) at BetMGM

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Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill

Light Heavyweight BoutOdds
Alex Pereira Odds-142
Jamahal Hill Odds+120
Over/under rounds1.5 (-210 / +160)

Crowdsourced Projections: Alex Pereira (58.2%) 

For additional information, including a full statistical breakdown of Saturday's main event and light heavyweight title bout, check out my Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill preview.

In short, I expect Pereira's superior footwork and Hill's Achilles injury to affect the outcome significantly.

I projected Pereira as a -139 favorite (58.2% implied odds) in this matchup, and I would bet his moneyline up to around -130 (56.5% implied), at nearly a 2% edge compared to my projection.

I like the fight to end inside the distance around 85% of the time (-567 implied), more often than the betting market suggests; however, I'm not interested in laying significant juice to place that wager.

Instead, I projected Pereira's knockout line at +115 and Hill's knockout price at +199, and you can find as high as +135 and +215, respectively, in the betting market.

I'll likely use the former as a round-robin piece while I wait for the best number on Pereira's moneyline.

Bets

  • Alex Pereira (-130, 0.25u at DraftKings)

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Zerillo's UFC 300 Bets

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Moneyline Bets

  • Sodiq Yusuff (+125, 0.5u) at Caesars
  • Aleksandr Rakic (-110, 0.5u) at Caesars
  • Arman Tsarukyan (-200, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM
  • Max Holloway (+143, 0.25u) at Caesars
  • Alex Pereira (-130, 0.25u) at DraftKings

Prop Bets and Totals

  • Deiveison Figueiredo wins Inside the Distance (-105, 0.5u) at DraftKings
  • Jim Miller / Bobby Green, Over 2.5 Rounds (-125, Risk 0.5u) at WynnBet
  • Jalin Turner wins in Rounds 1 or 2 (-120, 0.25u) at DraftKings
  • Holly Holm / Kayla Harrison, Fight ends Inside the Distance (+100, 0.5u) at DraftKings
  • Calvin Kattar / Aljamain Sterling, Fight ends Inside the Distance (+155, 0.5u) at WynnBet
  • Bo Nickal wins in Round 2 (+410, 0.15u) at FanDuel
  • Bo Nickal wins in Round 3 (+1600, 0.05u) at FanDuel
  • Max Holloway / Justin Gaethje, Fight ends Inside the Distance (-115, 0.5u) at Caesars
  • Weili Zhang wins by Submission (+500, 0.1u) at BetMGM

Parlays

  • TBD

Live Bets

  • Aleksandar Rakic Live after Round 1
  • Max Holloway Live Anytime after Round 1

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