Happy International Fight Week! The UFC's summer blockbuster event goes down this weekend in Las Vegas, with two title fights topping the card. The main event features Ilia Topuria moving up to lightweight to chase a second title against former champion Charles Oliveira, while the co-main event has Alexandre Pantoja taking on Kai Kara-France.
The prelims for the 12-fight card kick off at 6:30 ET on ESPN+, with the main card on ESPN+ PPV at 10:00 ET.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 317 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 317 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Ilia Topuria (-440) vs. Charles Oliveira (+340)
I initially thought it was strange that Charles Oliveira is the one welcoming Ilia Topuria at lightweight, considering "Do Bronx" is 2-2 over his last four with one loss to former top contender Arman Tsarukyan.
However, the loss to Tsarukyan was a split decision that could have gone either way, while the other loss was to Islam Makhachev. Besides being high-level fighters, those are two of the best wrestlers in the division (if not the sport) — which isn't really Topuria's style.
While Topuria mixes in the occasional takedown, his best attribute is his striking. We'll see if that plays up at lightweight, where he's facing an opponent in Oliveira with a five-inch reach advantage.
Oliveira hasn't lost a fight on the feet since he was knocked out by Cub Swanson in 2012, so I like his chances relative to the odds.Topuria has made a habit of knocking out legends in recent fights and is a deserving favorite, but +340 is somewhat disrespectful to the former champ.
The line seems to be moving even more towards Topuria so we can probably wait before jumping on this one, but I'll have some action on the Brazilian at some point.
Verdict: Charles Oliveira Undervalued
Alexandre Pantoja (-265) vs. Kai Kara-France (+215)
With Islam Makhachev vacating the lightweight crown, Alexandre Pantoja is now the longest-tenured UFC champion in a men's division and could pass Zhang Weili for the overall lead with a win on Saturday.
He's cleared out the division as thoroughly as any fighter in recent memory, with five combined wins against the top two ranked flyweights in the UFC, Brandons Royval and Moreno. This fight is also a rematch, as Pantoja defeated Kara-France in the second round of The Ultimate Fighter season 24.
It's hard to see this one going much differently since Kara-France comes into the fight with a win streak of just one, and is largely getting a title fight for want of better options.
Hopefully the line continues to drop throughout the week. If not I may consider some prop options over Pantoja's moneyline, but as it stands Pantoja is somewhat undervalued.
Verdict: Alexandre Pantoja Undervalued
Brandon Royval (-110) vs. Josh Van (-110)
This is likely the de facto "backup fight" for the co-main event, as either Royval or Van could slide into a title fight should the need arise.
Josh Van is injecting some much-needed new life into the flyweight division. At just 23 years old, he's already 7-1 in the UFC, with this set to be his sixth UFC fight in less than a year. His one loss was a somewhat surprising knockout by Charles Johnson in the third round of a fight Van was winning, with Van's wins all fairly clear.
The same can't be said for Royval, who has won consecutive split decisions since losing to Pantoja for the title in 2023.
I don't love that Van is stepping in just three weeks after knocking out Bruno Silva at UFC 316, but that's a big part of why he isn't favored here. I suspect he'll eventually flip to a favorite price anyway, so I'm jumping on his line now.
The best price is -106 at BetRivers.
Verdict: Josh Van Undervalued
Renato Moicano (-125) vs. Beneil Dariush (+105)
This fight was originally booked for UFC 311, but an injury to main event fighter Arman Tsarukyan elevated Moicano to the main event, and left Dariush without an opponent.
Moicano was submitted in the first round, while Dariush went home with both his show and win money, making him the real winner of the weekend.
Regardless, we're trying again at UFC 317. Just like last time, I'll be looking to bet Dariush at plus money. He's an extremely accomplished grappler, with three black belt world championships to his name.
Moicano's wins have almost exclusively come through his grappling, but I don't see him winning in that realm against Dariush.
The fact that this price has already adjusted about 30 cents towards Dariush from the last fight is a sign, and it wouldn't shock me if this closed as a pick 'em or Dariush favored. Grab Dariush while you still can as an underdog. You can still find lines as high as +118 via Caesars Sportsbook.
Verdict: Beneil Dariush Undervalued
