The UFC heads to Chicago this weekend, for a much-anticipated middleweight title fight between Khamzat Chimaev and Dricus Du Plessis. Elsewhere on the card, we have the debut of former Bellator fighter Aaron Pico, taking on the undefeated Lerone Murphy in a possible featherweight title eliminator.
The 13-fight card starts at 6:00 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with the main card at 10:00 p.m. on ESPN+ PPV.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Vegas 108 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC 319 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Khamzat Chimaev (-225) vs. Dricus Du Plessis (+185)
Since finishing two fights in ten days at "Fight Island" during the pandemic, Khamzat Chimaev has been considered a future champion. It's been a bumpy road to his first title shot, with serious illness, injuries, and Visa issues all keeping him out of the cage.
Now, he finally gets his chance to fulfill his hype against Dricus Du Plessis, a relatively improbable champion making his third attempted title defense.
"DDP" is often lined as an underdog due to his wild style, which never looks like it should work. He brawls, throws punches at weird angles, and always seems to be at the brink of exhaustion, but pushes through at full speed anyway.
That cardio angle is going to be where most of the betting edge is found in this one. It's the first five-round fight for Chimaev, and he's struggled in the latter stages of three-round fights in the past.
From a moneyline perspective, the reigning champ is a bit undervalued. My guess is he becomes even more so during the week, as public money pushes his line further.
However, I'll be attacking this one via props anyway, so there's no reason to make a bet now.
Verdict: Du Plessis Undervalued (But Wait)
Aaron Pico (-142) vs. Lerone Murphy (+120)
Aaron Pico is a former Olympic alternate and U17 world champion in freestyle wrestling, with Bo Nickal-levels of hype when he made the transition to professional MMA back in 2017. He's fought exclusively for Bellator so far, running up a 13-4 pro record since debuting at age 20.
Still just 28, he's the rare UFC free agent signing still in the prime of his career, and could be one fight away from a title shot against the undefeated Lerone Murphy. Murphy has similar stakes, coming in with eight straight wins since a split draw in his UFC debut.
This is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup, with Murphy doing his best work on the feet — though his grappling has improved during his UFC tenure.
While Murphy has just 52% takedown defense, he's surrendered well under a minute of control time per takedown allowed, with elite get-up skills.
That, plus the track record for UFC acquisitions from other organizations and the long layoff (18 months) for Pico, has me leaning to the underdog here. However, much like the main event, I suspect we'll get a better price on Murphy later in the week, as his line has started to rise already after opening as low as +105 on some books.
Verdict: Pico Undervalued
Michal Oleksiejczuk (-218) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+180)
One underdog that has seen the line move his way is Gerald Meerschaert, with "GM3" opening around +200 before quickly being bet down.
I'm in line with the market here, as GM3 is one of the best submission artists in UFC history, and taking on an opponent who's been submitted by lesser grapplers in two of his last four fights.
The interesting thing about this fight is what the line on a Meerschaert submission will be. All but one of his 12 UFC victories have been via that method, with the lone exception being a TKO in 2017.
My guess is the submission line ends up fairly close to his moneyline, which, if current trends continue, will be lower by fight day. For that reason, I'm betting half a unit on Meerschaert now at +196 via FanDuel, which currently has the best odds.
That way, I can add on with his submission prop if the line is juicy enough, or let the half-unit bet ride at nearly two-to-one odds.
Verdict: Meerschaert Undervalued
Alibi Idiris (TBD) vs. Joseph Morales (TBD)
The UFC added one more bout to this card at the last minute, pitting undefeated Kazakh prospect Alibi Idris against returning UFC fighter Joseph Morales.
Morales is undefeated outside of his two UFC losses in 2018, one of which came against future champion Deiveson Figueiredo and the other was via split decision. Tough to get cut after going 1-2 with those two losses, especially considering he won a performance bonus in his lone win.
Idris is 10-0, with all ten bouts under the "Naiza FC" banner in his native Kazakhstan. That makes it tough to accurately gauge his abilities, though he holds wins over foreign fighters with solid records in other promotions.
No betting lines are available at the moment, but I'd line Idris as somewhere in the neighborhood of a -250 favorite. If posted lines diverge too heavily from that, I want to jump in on this one early.
Verdict: No Lines Available
