Aug 15, 2026; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Esteban Ribovics (blue gloves) reacts after defeating Edson Barboza (red gloves) in the lightweight bout during UFC 330 at Xfinity Mobile Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images
Read our UFC 332 predictions for this live event on Saturday from the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. The prelims kick off at 4:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, with the main card at 8:00 p.m.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 14-fight lineup to identify their UFC best bets and favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
Marvin Vettori enters Saturday's contest on a four-fight losing streak, with a 2-6 record in his past eight bouts, and looks increasingly slower and less interested in each outing.
"The Italian Dream" has always been well-rounded and exceedingly durable but has never defended strikes well during his career (56% striking defense), and perhaps that attritional damage is catching up to his athleticism in his mid-thirties.
Ismail Naurdiev is the younger, more dynamic athlete, and the market has pushed him nearly five percent in implied probability, from a -120 favorite at open closer to -145 as of writing.
My model agrees with the steam, projecting Naurdiev as a heavy favorite.
I also project an edge on Naurdiev by decision, but I prefer his moneyline.
Despite being a longtime fan of King Green, this could be one of those betting lines that look discounted in hindsight.
Aside from the fact that Ribovics’ money line opened at nearly double what it's currently listed, Green’s recent late-career resurgence, for as awesome as it’s been to get behind, is not necessarily indicative of where the 38-year-old is currently at.
Although you’ll be hard-pressed to find a bigger appreciator of Green’s style than me, there’s no denying that it’s dependent on speed and reaction times – things that age poorly at the lighter weight classes. But with Green still crafty enough to survive things he sometimes shouldn’t, and given that Ribovics missed weight, I believe the points handicap markets offer solid middle ground for a potential play.
Despite both having some split-decision history on their resumes, it’s important to remember that Green typically scores poorly with the judges (e.g., getting a split decision in what should’ve been a clear win opposite Lance Gibson Jr. and losing a unanimous decision to Thiago Moises in a fight he just as clearly won). Add in the fact that I sadly think that Ribovics finishes Green regardless, and I can’t help but fire on Ribovics’s -3.5 points at anything south of -175.
As is the case with team sports, often the most inefficient lines — and thus the biggest edges — lie in player props. The ranges of outcomes are wider, particularly in MMA, where the fight can end at any point. Imagine betting on an NFL player's rushing yards only for the fight to end in the first quarter.
Just like with team sport props, there's often an inherent edge in betting on unders, at least in the case of the significant strikes market. For a fighter to go over his significant strikes prop, a few things have to happen: He has to be able to actually land the strikes in the first place, the fight needs to stay standing for a significant amount of time, and the fight has to last long enough for that number to be cleared.
In the case of Payton Talbott, I have no concerns about the former factor. The preternaturally gifted striker will almost certainly be able to land against a checked-out, 38-year-old Deiveson Figueiredo. The other two factors are the important considerations here. They also correlate nicely in a way that gives us multiple paths to cashing an under.
I don't believe Deiveson Figueiredo is capable of withstanding 56 or more significant strikes from Talbott at this stage, which means the fight is somewhat likely to end prior to Talbott getting to that number. In my estimation, the only way it doesn't end before that is if Figueiredo managed to turn this into a grappling match — which is the "fight needs to stay standing" piece mentioned above.
It's very likely that one or both of those things limits the total output from Talbott, and Figueiredo hasn't absorbed more than 56 significant strikes in a three-round contest since 2019, which points to both his defensive strengths and his waning durability. I'd bet the under 55.5 strikes line down to -140, but we can get it at -115 via DraftKings.
Pick: Payton Talbott Under 55.5 Significant Strikes -115 (DraftKings)
Free Guide: 10 Tips to Hit Bigger Same Game Parlays More Often
10 real, data-backed strategies for SGP bettors. Just enter your email and we'll send it.
About the Author
Action Network is a team of seasoned sports betting experts specializing in a broad range of sports, from the NFL and NBA to less mainstream options like cricket and darts. Their staff includes well-known analysts like Sean Koerner and Stuckey, recognized for their accurate predictions and deep sports knowledge. The team is dedicated to delivering expert analysis and daily best bets, ensuring bettors are well-informed across all major sports.
This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.
