May 10, 2025; Montreal, Quebec, CANADA; Bekzat Almakhan (blue gloves) reacts after defeating Brad Katona (red gloves) during UFC 315 at Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: Eric Bolte-Imagn Images
Read our UFC Baku best bets for this live event on Saturday from the National Gymnastics Arena in Baku, Azerbaijan. We have a special 9:00 a.m. ET start time for the 13-fight card, headlined by Azerbaijan-native Rafael Fiziev taking on Manuel Torres.
Our MMA experts went through this weekend's 13-fight lineup to identify their UFC best bets and favorite picks for the card.
You can find their analysis and picks, as well as Sean Zerillo's moneyline and prop projections, on those matches below.
I've been on Bekzat Almakhan all week, initially playing his moneyline around +135. Initially it seemed like I'd cash some CLV, but the line has bounced back and forth a bit and is now roughly in the same place.
If you haven't tailed me on that bet, I'd obviously still take it, and I'll lay out some brief reasons why before getting in to my other bet on this fight.
Almakhan is just 1-2 in the UFC, but his losses have came to a Topuria and a Nurmagomedov. No, not Ilia and Khabib, but still.
He took the Umar Nurmagomedov fight on short notice, dropped Umar with basically the first clean shot he threw, but then was overwhelmed to the elite wrestling from Nurmagomedov as his cardio wore down in a shot notice fight. While it wasn't a win, that was definitely a "stock up" performance.
He flashed his power again in his next fight, knocking out Brad Katona, who had never previously been finished as a pro, with just eight total strikes. Most recently he lost a decision to Aleksandre Topuria, who is undefeated in his UFC and might be nearly as good as his younger brother.
Jean Matsumoto has a better UFC record at 3-2, but has gone to three straight split decisions, and barely squeaked by Katona.
He won 29-28 in a fight where both men landed the same number of significant strikes, while Katona had more takedowns and control time. Outside of a guillotine over Dan Arguets (1-3-2 UFC record) the ceiling for Matsumoto seems to be a close decision.
That means, at worst, we're hoping for the judges' to give the nod to the local(ish) fighter with more power. I'll take that bet any day at plus-money. At best, Almakhan defends takedowns long enough to land some big shots on Matsumoto and puts him away without any doubt.
Which brings me to the other bet I'm adding on for this fight: Almakhan finish only at -150 on DraftKings. This bet refunds if the judges are needed regardless of result, while paying out if either fighter gets a finish.
I don't see Matsumoto putting Almakhan away even if he gets it to the ground — Nurmagomedov couldn't even in a short-notice fight for Almakhan — so this is a fairly safe way to get some additional upside on "Baby Shavkat."
Pick: Bekzat Almakhan Finish Only Moneyline -150 (DraftKings)
On this week's Action Network Podcast, Billy and I landed on Javier Reyes as a consensus best bet for this weekend's card.
Billy gave out Reyes closer to -170 in his luck ratings earlier this week, and the market has steamed towards the favorite in recent days – pushing Reyes closer to -220 marketwide.
Still, I projected his moneyline closer to -260, and would either bet him straight to around -235, or utilize him as a parlay piece up to -250.
Reyes has a significant seven-inch reach advantage, is the better athlete in the fight, and is both the more dynamic and voluminous striker.
If he is able to keep this fight standing and prevent Ofli from grappling and gaining top position, Reyes should either find a finish or run away on the scorecards.
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