The UFC heads to Azerbaijan this weekend, with a 13-fight card from the National Gymnastics Arena in Baku. The headliner is native son Rafael Fiziev taking on Manuel Torres in a bout between two fighters on the fringes of the lightweight rankings.
This one has a special 9:00 AM ET start time (6:00 PT) to accommodate the local audience, so be sure to have your bets figured out early.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Baku odds as of Monday and via DraftKings except where otherwise noted. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Baku Predictions & Luck Ratings
Rafel Fiziev (-115) vs. Manuel Torres (-105)
My initial reaction to this matchup was that Torres would be a considerable favorite, given the recent form of both men. While Fiziev is just two years older than Torres, he's dropped four of his last five, officially has three knockout losses in the UFC (though one was a leg injury), and has twice as many UFC bouts as Torres.
However, two of those four losses were close decisions to lightweight champion Justin Gaethje, plus one was the knee injury. The concerning loss in that span was the knockout against Mauricio Ruffy in January. Fiziev is stepping back in the cage with less than a five-month turnaround, and Torres is somewhat similar stylistically and in terms of the power he brings.
"El Loco" is 5-1 in the UFC (6-1 counting Contender Series) with all of those fights ending via knockout. He's been defensively sound outside of the KO loss to Ignacio Bahamondes, with a 54% significant strike defense overall. Bahamondes is also the only opponent against whom Torres didn't have a height/reach edge, which he'll have against Fiziev. On the downside, this will be Torres' first five-round fight, should it get there, and he's never left the first round in the UFC. Fiziev has been to the fifth round once, with one other fight scheduled for it, but has never really struggled with cardio in extended fights.
My gut still tells me Torres is undervalued here, but I greatly prefer to wait for the prop markets to open up and play him by knockout or finish, since it's hard to see him beating Fiziev over five rounds. With public picks fairly balanced, I also don't see the price getting much worse, so we can afford to wait here.
Verdict: Torres Undervalued, but wait for props
Javier Reyes (-166) vs. Kaan Ofli (+140)
After opening at -150, Javier Reyes is already catching some steam in the market, with his current moneyline ranging from -155 to -167. That's somewhat notable since DraftKings has only had this fight up for about three days at the time of writing.
I fully agree with that movement and expect it to continue. Reyes has a pair of stoppage victories across the UFC and Contender Series, where we cashed the under 2.5 rounds at plus-money in his fight. He's a dangerous striker who hasn't had to show much grappling in the UFC yet, but that was my favorite part of his game when I broke down tape on him coming in.
Ofli is officially 2-2 in the UFC, counting his loss in the championship round of season 32 of The Ultimate Fighter, where he was knocked out by Mairon Santos. He was also dropped and taken down three times by Yizha in his last fight, despite going on to win a majority decision. That decision was a borderline robbery, with more than 90% of fans and media scoring it as either a draw or a loss for Ofli.
He should really be 1-3 in the UFC, with a negative striking differential and five takedowns surrendered in four fights. Reyes should be a heavier favorite, so grab the -155 still available at Caesars while it's still there.
Verdict: Reyes Undervalued
Bekzat Almakhan (+136) vs. Jean Matsumoto (-162)
If there's someone out there capable of stopping me from betting on Bekzat "Baby Shavkat" Almakhan, I haven't met them.
Sure, Almakhan is just 1-2 in the UFC, but his losses came to Nurmagomedov and Topuria. No, not that Nurmagomedov or Topuria, but Umar and Aleksandre are a combined 10-1 in the UFC, and Almakhan managed to drop Nurmagomedov in the first round of a short-notice fight before gassing out. In between, he became the first man to finish Brad Katona in an MMA fight, and needed just 64 seconds to do so.
That power makes him a massive threat to anyone in the division, but especially Matsumoto. The Brazilian has a negative striking differential and a 47% significant strike defense rate, so it's highly likely his chin gets tested here. Plus, Matsumoto isn't much of a finishing threat, with his last three fights all ending via split decision. He's 1-2 in those bouts, so he's due for a little bit of regression his way I suppose, but not enough to make him a favorite.
At worst, this is a high-variance fight where Almakhan should have the support of the home crowd — and possibly judges — if it goes to a close decision. At best, the more powerful Almakhan ends things early, leaving no doubt. Either way, at plus-money, I want to be on his side.
The best line is currently the +136 at DraftKings, though I wouldn't be shocked if we see slightly better later in the week. I'm putting down half of a unit now, then either betting his knockout prop or reupping his moneyline later, depending on price movement.
Verdict: Almakhan Undervalued
