After taking Labor Day Weekend off, the UFC is back this week with UFC Paris. The card looks to be worth the wait, with a middleweight title eliminator between Fighting Nerds leader Caio Borralho and French star Nassourdine Imavov.
Thanks to the time difference, the 14-fight card starts at Noon ET on Saturday.
The entire event airs on ESPN+, with the official start to the main card coming at 3:00 p.m. Eastern.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC Paris odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Paris Predictions & Luck Ratings
Caio Borralho (-130) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (+110)
While the Paris crowd will be hoping for a win from the hometown star Imavov, early bettors are already on the side of the Brazilian intruder. Borralho opened at slight plus-money last week, but has already been bet down to -130 on DraftKings, with other books moving beyond that number.
"The Natural" is 7-0 in the UFC and on a 16-fight win streak overall, with his last loss coming more than a decade ago. He's fought increasingly difficult competition in that run, with his most recent victory coming against perennial contender Jared Cannonier.
However, Imavov finished Cannonier, while Borralho needed a decision. Imavov's strength of schedule has also been a bit tougher, with his most recent win coming against former champion Israel Adesanya. His 8-2-1 UFC record isn't quite as impressive as Borralho's undefeated run, but considering the opponents he's fought along the way, it's a similar overall resume.
While I do view Borralho as a rightful slight favorite, if this line were to move much more in his direction, I'd consider a bet on Imavov. Especially with this fight being in France, where a close decision could be swayed to the hometown fighter.
Verdict: Fairly Valued — But Look for Imavov at Better Odds
Mason Jones (-142) vs. Bolaji Oki (+120)
Bolaji Oki is the type of fighter my "Luck Ratings" were designed to catch — that is, one whose record paints a much rosier picture of his abilities than is probably deserved.
After picking up a knockout win on the Contender Series, Oki needed a split decision to beat Timmy Cuamba, and edged out Michael Aswell 29-28 in his two UFC wins. Aswell and Cuamba are a combined 1-3 in the UFC, with Aswell also losing his own Contender Series bout.
In between, Oki was submitted in the first round by Chris Duncan, the only clear UFC-level opponent he's faced.
Mason Jones was a much-hyped, undefeated prospect in his first UFC stint, which saw him go 2-2-1 before voluntarily returning to Cage Warriors. There, he went 4-0 with three finishes, before returning with a dominant win over Jeremy Stephens.
The 30-year-old is now in the prime of his career, and is much closer in ability to Duncan than fighters like Aswell or Cuamba, so I like him as a slight favorite. The -142 line on DraftKings is considerably better than most books, so I'd jump on that line now.
Verdict: Jones Undervalued
William Gomis (-250) vs. Robert Ruchala (+205)
As part of their continued push to sign stars from other organizations, the UFC has signed KSW featherweight champion Robert Ruchala, who makes his UFC debut this weekend.
He's taking on 4-1 French fighter William Gomis, who, like Oki, is probably not as good a fighter as his record indicates. Four of Gomis' five UFC fights have gone to contested decisions (split or majority), and he's gone 3-1 in those fights. He "should" be 2-2 in those fights based on fan and media scorecards — as well as the law of averages.
Ruchala has finished his last three wins, and his only loss in that span was via soccer kick — which isn't allowed in the UFC. He's got the bulk of the finishing upside here, and Gomis is certainly "due" to lose another close decision.
If this fight were anywhere other than France, I'd feel better about a decision going Ruchala's way, but with his finishing upside I still like him as more than a two-to-one underdog. The line is also likely inflated a bit by the fact he's not a known name to the average UFC fan, which means we might get a better price later — but I'm not counting on it, so I'll take the +205 at DraftKings now.
Verdict: Ruchala Undervalued
Ante Delija (-118) vs. Marcin Tybura (-102)
The UFC has also signed 2022 PFL heavyweight tournament winner Ante Delija, with the Croatian making his promotional debut on the card. His first UFC opponent is a familiar name, as he lost a 2015 fight via a freak leg injury to Marcin Tybura under the M1 Global banner.
Delija is four years younger than Tybura, which is typically an important factor in rematches. Especially since the first fight wasn't a clear win for Tybura — Delija's injury was the result of planting his foot awkwardly after a kick, not anything Tybura did to injure him.
Delija is unlikely to be overwhelmed by the moment, since he's fought a bevy of UFC bets as well as competed on big stages like the PFL tournament. He's also a tough stylistic matchup for Tybura, who typically relies on his grappling.
Delija trains with UFC heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall and is generally difficult to take down, making this a tough spot for Tybura. Plus, this line opened with Delija as a significant underdog, so betting on him is getting on the side of smart money.
The best line as of Monday morning is -112 at BetRivers, but I'd take it down to -130.
Verdict: Delija Undervalued
