After a few weeks of fun shows on the road, we head back to the Apex for a fight night. This one has a fun headliner at least, with undefeated prospect Michael Morales taking on former title challenger Gilbert Burns.
The prelims for the 12-fight card start at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN+, with the five-fight main card going down at 7:00 p.m. on ESPN+ PPV.
One of the first “aha!” moments I had in gambling (generally, not just MMA) was starting to think about why markets might be wrong rather than just trying to predict what I think will happen.
At its core, a betting line is a market where we can “buy” or “sell” events. These markets are usually efficient, with the “price” eventually reflecting the true odds of the event.
While this is less true in MMA — where there are far more information asymmetries than in major markets like the NFL or NBA — it’s still broadly (and increasingly) the case. Therefore, to beat the markets over the long term, we need to find the spots where they’re wrong.
That’s the point of this piece. Inspired by our NFL “Luck Rankings,” I’ll look into spots where variance has favored one fighter more than another, making the line inefficient. The biggest input will be split and/or controversial decisions, with short-notice fights, later overruled fights, fluke injuries, and out-of-weight-class fights also considered.
The focus will be on fights that are reasonably likely to see the scorecards or where one fighter holds most of the finishing upside.
UFC 315 odds as of Monday and via DraftKings. Bet on the UFC with our DraftKings promo code.
UFC Vegas 106 Predictions & Luck Ratings
Michael Morales (-850) vs. Gilbert Burns (+575)
Gilbert Burns is nearly 39 years old, and coming in to the fight with three straight losses. In his defense, those three all came to top-five welterweights, including new champion Jack Della Maddalena, former champion Belal Muhammad, and #1 contender Sean Brady.
He was winning the fight against the current champion through two rounds, suffocating him with grappling before being finished in the third round. Burns' grappling-heavy style leads to some challenges in the later rounds, and we could see a similar stylistic fight against Morales.
Like JDM, Morales is a dynamic striker with big power, who primarily grapples defensively. He's yet to face somebody with Burns' takedown ability but so far has 92% takedown defense in the UFC.
There's a case to be made that Burns can at least keep this close, and I might bet some version of that later in the week. However, I have no interest in betting on Gilbert Burns straight up against a young prospect, nor laying nearly nine-to-one odds on said prospect.
I'm not sure it's exactly "fairly valued" but I'm not taking a side either way.
Verdict: Fairly Valued
Mairon Santos (-135) vs. Sodiq Yussuf (+114)
This bout is most notable for its weight class. It's taking place at lightweight, despite both fighters fighting exclusively at featherweight to this point in their UFC careers.
As an avid reader of the Super Squad Substack, I'm aware of how we got here. Yussuf had outgrown 145lbs and was making a planned move to 155. When some other fights fizzled, Santos stepped up to the plate — but will likely return to the lighter weight class after this fight.
Assuming Yussuf has added some size and strength, that could be a big edge. Fighters cut weight for a reason, and Yussuf will likely be the bigger, stronger fighter.
Plus, Santos comes into this one off a split decision win that 100% of media members scored against him, while Yussuf's loss was to top featherweight Diego Lopes. All that, and we're still getting him at plus money.
BetRivers has the best odds at +118.
Verdict: Sodiq Yussuf Undervalued
Jared Gordon (-108) vs. Thiago Moises (-112)
Jared Gordon opened at slight plus money for this fight, with odds around +102. As of Monday afternoon, he's close to being the outright favorite against Thiago Moises.
That was the first thing that stood out here. Additionally, one could argue Gordon didn't deserve either of his last two losses. Both his split decision loss to Nasrat Haqparast and his unanimous decision to Paddy Pimblett were scored in Gordon's favor by the vast majority of fans and media, so he could easily be on a four-fight winning streak.
Moises is coming off a close decision win over Try Ogden, and has yet to have a split or majority decision in the UFC.
Still, the market movement and luck are both pointing to Gordon, so he's the early pick. The -108 line at DraftKings is the best currently available.
Verdict: Jared Gordon Undervalued
Tecia Pennington (-395) vs. Luana Pinheiro (+310)
Tecia Pennington (formerly Torres) came into her last fight on the heels of two consecutive split decision losses. Both of those fights split fans and media members nearly evenly, meaning she deserved at least one of them.
Naturally, that made her a prime Luck Ratings candidate in her last fight — in which she won a razor-close decision over Carla Esparza. You shouldn't be surprised to learn that fans and media were almost evenly divided there, as well.
The point being, "Tiny Tornado" usually finds herself in close fights, almost regardless of the opponent. Is she a better fighter than Luana Pinheiro? Probably. Has she ever looked like a -400 favorite, even in her wins? Certainly not.
Due to that, it's worth taking a sprinkle on the underdog in a fight that almost certainly hits the judges. You may be able to catch a better line at some point, but every time it has moved north of the current odds it's quickly bet back down.
I'm putting a quarter unit on her at Caesars, where their +320 is the best current line.
Verdict:Luana Pinheiro Undervalued
