UFC Vegas 78 Odds, Pick & Prediction for Cub Swanson vs. Hakeem Dawodu: Kryptonite vs. Kryptonite in Co-Headliner (Saturday, August 12)
Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC. Pictured: UFC featherweight Cub Swanson
Cub Swanson vs. Hakeem Dawodu Odds
The UFC Vegas 78 co-main event on Saturday features a fun featherweight fight between Cub Swanson and Hakeem Dawodu that has action written all over it.
Swanson, who is a well-respected veteran of the game, is returning to 145 pounds after briefly flirting with bantamweight last year.
Losing to a quality fighter such as Jonathan Martinez aside, I'm happy to see Swanson back at his natural weight class at featherweight and not having to make that weight cut again.
Dawodu is also coming off of a disappointing loss sustained last year when the Canadian missed weight for the first time in his career.
Both fighters seem to have bitter tastes in their mouths heading into the UFC Vegas 78 co-main event today, so I'm expecting fireworks.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||11:27||13:19|
|Weight||146 pounds||146 pounds|
|Reach||70 inches||73 inches|
|Date of birth||11/2/1983||7/2/1991|
|Sig Strikes Per Minute||4.68||5.33|
|SS Absorbed Per Minute||3.73||3.15|
|Take Down Average||1.09||0.00|
Despite each fighter having underrated ground games in tow for this UFC Vegas 78 clash, striking is how both men tend to make their money.
An accoladed muay Thai competitor on the Canadian regional scene, Dawodu doesn't mess around when it comes to the art of eight limbs.
Whether he's hooking off his jab or kicking his opposition's legs with impunity, Dawodu does not discriminate when it comes to targeting limbs and levels.
Dawodu is more than happy to peck away at an opponent with effective range weapons, but the 32-year-old clearly keeps hard counters in tow.
Although he seldom takes the time to enjoy himself in closed quarters, Dawodu demonstrates a solid feel for clinch tactics and knees.
Mean. Hakeem. The fighting machine.
— UFC (@ufc) July 28, 2019
That said, I'm not sure how much the Calgary native will want to be tying up with Swanson.
One of the sport's most creative offensive artists, Swanson shows all the attributes you would want in an action-fighter.
Although Swanson's movements may seem sporadic at times, there is a method to his momentum-fueled madness.
Whether Swanson's shifting his stance to throw liver kicks from southpaw or darting off of his favored lead right hand, the 19-year pro is ultimately looking to initiate reactions that will allow for his opposition to open themselves up inadvertently.
🚨 Cub Swanson Fight Week 🚨
— UFE (@ufeworld) August 9, 2023
Working with Joel Diaz for many years, Swanson’s boxing influence shines through in his follow-up punches, punctuating his presence brilliantly to the body.
Although Swanson's timing change-ups and strikes off the breaks will likely serve him well this Saturday, I'll be curious to see if he looks to mix in more takedowns given his on-paper grappling edge as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt.
But regardless of Swanson's strategy, I suspect that the smaller octagon of the UFC Apex will encourage action either way.
Swanson vs. Dawodu Pick
The oddsmakers and the public are siding with the younger man, listing Dawodu -230 and Swanson +180 as of this writing.
Considering that Swanson has been in the game for almost 20 years as a professional fighter, I'm not surprised to see the WEC veteran wear the distinction of the underdog in this spot.
Aside from winning just three of his last nine fights, Swanson's durability appears to be going on all levels.
Even though his last fight went down as a leg-kick TKO, Swanson cited prior body damage as the nail in the coffin.
A common culprit for Swanson's losses in the more relevant part of the last decade involves kick-savvy fighters, which could bode badly for him here.
Not only does Dawodu make it a point to punish his opponent's legs, but the Canadian also isn't shy about brutalizing the body.
That said, I believe that Swanson carries some stylistic kryptonite that makes him lively enough to scare me off of Dawodu's moneyline (despite officially picking him to win).
Whether you're looking at Dawodu's last loss to Julian Erosa or his early rounds opposite Yoshinori Horie, unconventional movers like Swanson who can either change up their timing or competently strike off of the breaks have traditionally caused Dawodu issues.
Dawodu may not have been knocked out officially as a pro, but the man has been rocked consistently enough to where prop bettors may want to start considering knockout props if the numbers seem misplaced.
Although Swanson in the neighborhood of +600 isn't bad for that forecast, I'll be sticking to a somewhat safer look by targeting the total and taking the under 2.5 rounds.
I'm sure Dawodu's recent decision run in the UFC has many going the other way, but – as my analysis above states – these two arguably carry each other's stylistic kryptonite from a striking standpoint.
Add in the increased action of the smaller cage utilized by the UFC Apex, and I think that the under is the play for this fight.
The Pick: Swanson-Dawodu under 2.5 rounds (+100) | Bet to: -115