UFC Vegas 82 Best Bets: Our Top Picks and Predictions for Allen vs. Craig, More (Saturday, November 18)
Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images. Pictured: UFC middleweight Brendan Allen and Paul Craig
Check out our UFC Vegas 82 best bets for the Saturday ESPN+ event in Las Vegas, which features a Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig main event.
Our MMA experts have scoured the fight card in search of betting value, and the main event is among their favorite plays today.
However, that middleweight bout is just one of 14 fights on Saturday's card, which kicks off early at 2 p.m. ET (11 a.m. PT) from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. The fight card streams entirely on ESPN+.
So where should be looking to place your UFC bets? Our crew has pinpointed four fights and picks on Saturday’s UFC Vegas 82 fight card that present betting value.
You can find their analysis and predictions for those matches below.
Dann Stupp: Charles Johnson vs. Rafael Estevam
Senior Editor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 1:55 p.m. ET
My best bet for UFC Vegas 82 comes in the day's opener, where UFC vet Charles Johnson welcomes promotional newcomer and fellow flyweight Rafael Estevam to the UFC octagon.
Ultimately, I think we're getting a bit of a bargain on underdog Johnson.
Despite his UFC experience and much higher level of competition, Johnson is coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. However, those defeats come to notables Ode Osbourne and Cody Durden, so there's little shame in those setbacks.
Estevam, meanwhile, has faced little in the way of credible competition outside of his Contender Series win over Joao Elias (17-4-1) in September 2022.
Additionally, the Brazilian hasn't fought since that bout 14 months ago, he struggled to make weight in a recently canceled UFC matchup, and he's displayed suspect cardio the few times his fights have extended beyond the first round.
The way Johnson probably best exploits all of these issues is by dragging out the fight and pushing it past the opening five minutes. Estevam is dangerous in the first round, especially with his jiu-jitsu while both fighters are dry. But when Johnson is taken down, he's got a pretty solid get-up game.
And as the fight wears on and his cardio starts to peter, Estevam's takedowns will likely become more desperate and overall less effective, giving Johnson the opportunities he needs to take over on the feet.
I like Johnson straight up on the moneyline at any odds with a plus number attached to them. I'll also be considering some Round 2 (+1200) and Round 3 (+1900) sprinkles for Johnson since I think he can own the second half of this fight.
The Pick: Charles Johnson (+130 at DraftKings)
Billy Ward: Trey Ogden vs. Nikolas Motta
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 2:25 p.m. ET
For the third straight fight, Trey Ogden comes into the bout as an underdog. He arguably outperformed his betting line in his past two contests – one an upset victory over Daniel Zulhuber and the other a reasonably close decision loss to Ignacio Bahamondes.
His only other UFC fight was his debut against Jordan Leavitt, in which Ogden lost a close split decision to “The Monkey King.”
On Saturday's UFC Vegas 82 prelims, Ogden is fighting Nikolas Motta, who like Ogden is 1-2 in the UFC. However, his losses were both ugly knockouts, one at the hands of Jim Miller and the other against Manuel Torres.
While he scored a knockout of his own in his sole UFC victory, it was over Cameron VanCamp, who went 0-2 in the UFC and has lost another fight outside of the promotion since being released.
All of which is to say Ogden has performed better against tougher competition, in both his wins and losses. Motta is the more explosive fighter here, but he loads up on big hooks and kicks with very little setup behind his strikes.
Ogden is considerably more well-rounded with solid footwork and head movement while mixing in the occasional takedown to keep his opponents guessing.
The other technical factor that stands out is Motta’s inability or unwillingness to check leg kicks. Both of his knockout losses came after having his front leg chopped away. With Ogden having an edge in height and reach, he should look to attack the lead leg from range to soften up Motta.
I’d make Ogden a slight favorite in this matchup, so I’m happy to get the plus-money odds currently available. I’d play it down to +105.
The Pick: Trey Ogden (+116 at FanDuel)
Tony Sartori: Jeka Saragih vs. Lucas Alexander
Staff Writer at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 3:25 p.m. ET
On Saturday's UFC Vegas 82 prelims, heavy favorite Lucas Alexander takes on Jeka Saragih in a featherweight bout.
Well, it was "scheduled" as a featherweight scrap before Alexander missed weight by two pounds.
With that said, the fight will commence with the favorite forfeiting 20% of his purse, so Alexander gets another massive advantage of coming in heavy on top his already hefty price tag. I think that the best way to take the -590 favorite down to plus-money is by taking a shot on his KO/TKO prop via FanDuel at +105.
First, this bout will likely primarily take place on the feet. Alexander has yet to even attempt a takedown through his first two UFC bouts while Saragih has not attempted one in either of his past two scraps.
It would make sense for Alexander to stick to the stand-and-bang style in this fight, especially boasting a three-inch height and four-inch reach advantage. We know he carries the power to end this thing inside the distance, especially considering his three straight stoppage victories before joining the UFC.
On the other hand, we just saw Anshul Jubli grab a TKO victory over Saragih at a UFC Fight Night event in February. Oddsmakers agree that this fight is unlikely to need the judges' input as the "Will the fight go the distance?" prop is -205 to the "No."
Given those aforementioned variables, I think the most likely outcome in this fight for the -590 favorite is by KO/TKO.
The Pick: Lucas Alexander by KO/TKO (+105 at FanDuel)
Dan Tom: Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig
Contributor at The Action Network
Fighter walkouts: Approx. 7:25 p.m. ET
With Brendan Allen and Paul Craig being some of the more proven products offered at UFC Vegas 82, I couldn't help but zero in on a total that's just begging to be played.
Despite Rounds 1 and 2 traditionally being "hot rounds" for finishes between these two, I believe that the five-round nature and stylistic matchup could force a cautious start from both parties.
Aside from the fact that Allen has publicly stated his intentions to stay away from Craig early, it's not uncommon to see two fighters with grappling bases partake in lackluster striking affairs in this sport (particularly at middleweight).
I do suspect that one of these fighters sorts out a finish before the final bell; I just suspect that it won't come until the third or fourth rounds considering the fact that they could stylistically nullify each other early.
For that reason, I think that we're getting a pretty good deal on this total given both the price and the round separations.
I'll officially be picking Allen to finish Craig in Rounds 3 or 4, but I can't justify playing the American as north of a 4-1 favorite in this economy.
Instead, I'll be leaning heavily into the over while sprinkling small on the middle rounds.
The Pick: Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig Over 1.5 Rounds (-106 at FanDuel)
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