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How UFC Fighters Fare After Missing Weight

How UFC Fighters Fare After Missing Weight article feature image
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Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images.

After training for months for a fight, it can be jarring for a fighter when his/her matchup is affected by someone missing weight.

Obviously, fighters’ pay is affected by someone coming in over the limit, but it also can affect how bettors should approach certain fights. By going over recent trends of how fighters fare after missing weight, there have been a couple trends over the past couple years.

The biggest fights — main events and co-main events — are rarely affected by a fighter missing weight, but let’s see if there’s value to be found lower on the fight card in these circumstances.

In 2020, 27 UFC fighters missed weight and went on with their fight. They went a combined 9-18. It was a different story in 2021, with some significant trends going both ways.

The year started out as more of the same from 2020, with only three of nine fighters who missed weight coming out victorious in their fights. Then, though, three out of five won. And after that, a staggering seven straight were winners. Since Zhu Rong won in September, though, five straight fighters to miss weight have lost.

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Here’s a look at the fights in 2021 that have seen a fighter miss weight:

Bold indicates the winner. Closing odds are from bet365 and via bestfightodds.com.

Date Fighter Who Missed Weight Opponent
Jan. 24, 2021 Arman Tsarukyan (-714)  Matt Frevola (+500)
Feb. 20, 2021 Drako Rodriguez (-189) Aiemann Zahabi (+162)
Feb. 20, 2021 Jared Gordon (+100)  Danny Chavez (-125)
Feb. 20, 2021 Ketlen Vieira (-278) Yana Kunitskaya (+220)
Feb. 28, 2021 Maxim Grishin (+150) Dustin Jacoby (-175)
March 6, 2021 Askar Askarov (-164)  Joseph Benevidez (+137)
March 20, 2021 Jesse Strader (+500) Montel Jackson (-714)
March 27, 2021 Fabio Cherant (+240) Alonzo Menifield (-303)
April 10, 2021 Ignacio Bahamondes (-213) John Makdessi (+175)
April 17, 2021 Tracy Cortez (-278)  Justine Kish (+225)
May 1, 2021 Luana Carolina (+200) Poliana Botelho (-250)
May 8, 2021 Carlos Diego Ferreira (+125) Gregor Gillespie (-152)
May 15, 2021 Rogerio Bontorin (+140) Matt Schnell (-172)
May 22, 2021 Juancamilo Ronderos (+450) David Dvorak (-625)
June 12, 2021 Steven Peterson (-111)  Chase Hooper (-111)
July 10, 2021 Irene Aldana (-111) Yana Kunitskaya (-111)
July 31, 2021 Phillip Rowe (+150) Orion Cosce (-175)
Aug. 7, 2021 Manel Kape (-213)  Ode Osbourne (+175)
Aug. 21, 2021 Saidyokub Kakhramonov (+140)  Trevin Jones (-172)
Aug. 28, 2021 Mana Martinez (-278)  Guido Cannetti (+225)
Sept. 18, 2021 Rong Zhu (-278)  Dakota Bush (+225)
Oct. 2, 2021 Mike Breeden (+450) Alexander Hernandez (-625)
Oct. 2, 2021 Bethe Correia (+450) Karol Rosa (-625)
Oct. 9, 2021 Jared Gooden (+225) Randy Brown (-278)
Nov. 6, 2021 CJ Vergara (+170) Ode Osbourne (-200)
Nov. 6, 2021 Bruno Souza (+300) Melsik Baghdasaryan (-400)
Dec. 18, 2021 Justin Tafa (-333) Harry Hunsucker (+250)

Overall, fighters who missed weight last year went 14-13. Among those winners, favorites were 9-3 despite missing weight. The lightweight division had the most fighters who missed weight over the course of the year (six) followed by men’s flyweight division (five) and the bantamweight division (four).

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