F1 British Grand Prix Odds, Expert Picks & Predictions: 3 Bets for Silverstone (Sunday, July 9)

F1 British Grand Prix Odds, Expert Picks & Predictions: 3 Bets for Silverstone (Sunday, July 9) article feature image

Jure Makovec/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: F1 driver Charles Leclerc of Ferrari and Monaco

The F1 British Grand Prix at Silverstone on Sunday (10 a.m. ET, ESPN2) is one of the most anticipated races each year on the Formula 1 race calendar.

This event has been a part of every one of the Formula One World Championships dating back to 1950.

Qualifying on Saturday started off with a damp track and the threat of rain (as it is summer in the United Kingdom). Through each successive lap and qualifying session, the racing line continued to dry up, and the lap times continued to get faster and faster.

Max Verstappen won pole position for today's F1 British GP with a 1:26.720 in Q3, earning his seventh pole this season. Right behind him are the two McLarens in second and third. Following them are the two Ferraris, followed by the two Mercedes cars.

Let's look at my favorite F1 bets heading into the British Grand Prix.

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F1 Picks for British Grand Prix at Silverstone

Charles Leclerc Back-to-Back Podiums

It is blatantly obvious that Charles Leclerc and Ferrari have not had the best of seasons thus far in 2023. Leclerc is currently tied for sixth in points in the Drivers’ Championship with 72 points. He is 10 points behind teammate Carlos Sainz Jr. and well off the pace of last year's second-place finish in the final standings.

LeClerc, coming off just his second podium finish of the season, did not get this weekend off to a hot start. He finished FP1 with only the fifth-fastest lap time on the grid and did not even participate in the second practice session later in the day. There was an electrical issue with his Ferrari that prevented him from getting out on the track at all during that session.

Things went much better for Leclerc to start the day on Saturday, posting the fastest lap time of the entire FP3 session with a 1:27.419. At the start of qualifying, Leclerc was on the wrong tires, coming out on the intermediates due to the damp track and potential rain during the afternoon. To his credit, Leclerc made the call early in Q1 to pit and come in for the soft tires, which proved to be the right decision.

Leclerc set the second-fastest time during Q1 as the dry line started to form around the track. After going through sixth fastest during Q2, he was able to secure a second-row start for the race on Sunday with a 1:27.136 in Q3, good for fourth on the starting grid.

Be sure to look around at different sportsbooks to find the most favorable odds here, but I like the value at plus money for the top Ferrari driver to finish inside the top three for the second weekend in a row. He is in a run of good form, and the Ferrari has the pace to keep up with the two McLarens just ahead of him.

The Pick: Charles Leclerc – Top 3 Podium Finish (1 unit, +125 on BetMGM)

Can Lando Norris Dethrone the King?

The biggest winner from qualifying on Saturday was Zak Brown and the McLaren Racing team. Both of their drivers made it into Q3 and were extremely close to edging out Max Verstappen for pole position at Silverstone. In the end, they will start right behind the Red Bull in P2 and P3 for the race.

Lando Norris will start ahead of his teammate on Sunday on the front row in P2. He showed up in front of his home crowd and put in a masterful drive during qualifying. He posted the fastest time in Q1, running a 1:28.917, and was one of two drivers to go sub-1:27 in Q3 (1:26.961).

It would be a massive upset, however, should Max Verstappen lose the 2023 F1 British Grand Prix (-500 favorite to win). Verstappen has won seven of the nine races thus far in 2023, including five straight victories. That being said, F1 races can be unpredictable at times, especially with rain in the forecast and at a track that is known for its high-speed corners.

Since they moved the starting line to its current position back in 2011, there have been 12 British Grand Prix races run with this exact configuration. The average starting position of the race winner has been exactly two. Ten of the 12 previous winners have started either first or second on the grid.

Digging a little deeper into the recent track history, in each of the previous eight runnings going back to 2015, either the first or second qualifier has taken home the checkered flag. Five times the pole sitter won the race and three times, including Lewis Hamilton in 2021, has the starter in P2 won.

There will be 52 laps of high speed, high drama (we can hope for) standing between the start of the race and the checkered flag being waved at the end. This is a bet on the track history and the fact that Verstappen can’t win each and every one of the remaining 13 races (can he?). If you are looking for an outright winner not named Verstappen, I would go with Norris.

Norris, in his young career, has six previous podium finishes (albeit he has never won an F1 race). Five of those six podium finishes have come at high-speed race circuits like Austria, Emilia Romagna and Italy.

Can he win his first Grand Prix at the British home of motorsports? There is a lot of value here and a ton of pace in that car, as proven during qualifying on Saturday.

The Pick: Lando Norris – Race Winner (0.5 units, +1200 on BetMGM)

Prop Bet for the British GP

Only once in the past five years has the total number of classified drivers exceeded 17. In 2021, there were 18 classified finishers at the British GP. A classified driver is one who either finishes the race or has completed at least 90% of the distance before retiring the car.

Last year's race saw only 14 classified drivers of the possible 20. There were four drivers who went out due to collisions and two who retired early due to various car difficulties.

Prior to that, there were 17 classified drivers in 2020, 17 in 2019, and only 15 classified drivers in 2018.

Silverstone Circuit brings out a lot of close head-to-head battles on the track, and those inevitably lead to collisions and early retirements.

I like the under of 17.5 classified drivers for this year’s race. The weather forecast calls for an 80% chance of precipitation and only increases the chance of a tighter field driving on a slick track.

The Pick: Under 17.5 – Number of Classified Finishers (1 unit, +125 on DraftKings)

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