F1 Odds, Predictions & Picks: 3 Drivers to Back at Australian Grand Prix (Sunday, March 24)

F1 Odds, Predictions & Picks: 3 Drivers to Back at Australian Grand Prix (Sunday, March 24) article feature image

Quinn Rooney/Formula 1 via Getty Images. Pictured: Oscar Piastri of Australia and McLaren

Check out the F1 odds and Australian Grand Prix predictions and picks for the race on very early Sunday morning, March 24.

For the third race of the 2024 F1 season, we head to the Albert Park Grand Prix Circuit in Melbourne, Australia. With the beautiful Melbourne skyline in the distance and water bordering the track, this is one of the more picturesque street circuits in F1.

If you want to tune in for this scenic race on Sunday morning (12:01 a.m. ET, ESPN2), keep in mind the difference in time zones. Sunday's race in Melbourne will actually air live on Saturday night for much of North America.

The F1 Australian Grand Prix was historically one of the first races of the season but has now moved back on the calendar just a bit. The track was repaved for last year’s race, which saw a slight reconfiguration and added a fourth DRS zone.

Albert Park Circuit is a medium-downforce track, and while there are multiple straightaways, these stretches of the track aren’t nearly as long as what we saw in Saudi Arabia last weekend. As a result, the teams that suffer from high drag should perform better here.

Here are the F1 odds for Sunday's Australian Grand Prix race winner, as of Friday:

  • Max Verstappen: -400
  • Charles Leclerc: +400
  • Sergio Perez: +1400
  • Carlos Sainz Jr.: +1400
  • Lando Norris: +2800
  • Oscar Piastri: +4000
  • George Russell: +5000
  • Lewis Hamilton: +5000
  • Fernanda Alonso: +5000
  • Lance Stroll: +10000
  • Yuki Tsunoda: +75000
  • Alexander Albon: +100000
  • Daniel Ricciardo: +100000
  • Valtteri Botas:  +100000
  • Zhou Guanyu: +100000
  • Kevin Magnussen: +150000
  • Nico Hulkenberg: +150000
  • Pierre Gasly: +200000
  • Esteban Ocon: +200000

*Odds via BetMGM. Bet on the F1 Australian Grand Prix with our BetMGM bonus code.

F1 Odds: Australian Grand Prix Picks & Predictions 

McLaren Looks to Impress

When thinking of teams that will get that boost from the lack of drag, McLaren comes to mind. They have had the slowest top speeds for the past two weekends. While this car excels in fast corners, it gives up a lot of time due to a lacking top speed.

Even with the limitations of this McLaren car, the team had the third-best race pace as a team last weekend behind just Red Bull and Ferrari as both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri ranked top five. A similar order was held in Bahrain, where Norris was just behind those same teams and Piastri was behind the Mercedes after getting caught in traffic.


Bearman: 0.61s/lap away from LEC (traffic)

Change vs 2023 (Faster driver, s/lap)
McL -1.88📈
Ferrari -1.15
Williams -1.11
Haas -0.93
Sauber -0.64 (and one less stop)
Merc -0.59
RedBull -0.52
VCARB -0.34
Aston -0.27
Alpine +0.15📉 pic.twitter.com/KaAOYZeAFh

— Formula Data Analysis (@FDataAnalysis) March 9, 2024

My favorite bets here on McLaren are on the more conservative side, but I believe the books, especially FanDuel, are undervaluing both drivers this weekend but particularly Piastri.

You could find long-shot bets on Norris and Piastri at 50/1 and 70/1 outright, with Piastri also 70/1 to qualify fastest, which is much more likely than winning the race overall.

I think Norris will challenge the Ferrari drivers and Perez for the final two podium spots behind Max Verstappen while Piastri will battle for a Top 6 spot. With Carlos Sainz on the mend from appendix surgery that forced him out in Saudi Arabia, there's still a chance he may miss this weekend, which could strengthen these bets even further.

The Picks: Oscar Piastri Top 6 Finish (+105 at FanDuel) | Lando Norris Podium Finish (+650 at FanDuel)

Lewis Hamilton vs. Fernando Alonso

Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso have been battling each other for well over a decade, so it only makes sense that this is one of the few matchups available to bet that doesn’t involve teammates.

These two teams are on a similar level based on their overall performance, but Aston Martin does have a glaring weakness that may hold them back. They have improved their DRS effectiveness year over year, which has helped in qualifying, but their race pace has taken a step back.

According to @FDataAnalysis, Aston’s race-pace issues come from their car struggling when they have a high fuel load. For this reason, they are better in qualifying – but then suffer at the start of the race before coming alive toward the end.

Unfortunately, this typically comes a bit too late. Overall, Lewis has had better race pace than Alonso this season. With drag mattering less in Australia, this should help Mercedes out a bit as well.

I like taking Lewis at -145 over Fernando in what I believe is likely a superior car at a track that should suit Mercedes better.

The Pick: Lewis Hamilton over Fernando Alonso (-145 at BetMGM)

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