The Spanish Formula 1 Grand Prix is set to run on Sunday at 9 a.m. ET. One of the oldest races in the world still being contested, it's held at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya.
It will be the ninth race of the season and bring a close to the triple-header that opened F1's European season.
Find my Formula 1 betting preview and Spanish Formula 1 Grand Prix prediction below.
Spanish Formula 1 Grand Prix Preview
Out of Monaco's Sunday afternoon drive pace, F1 returns to a purpose-built track in the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya. The track, often referred to by its surrounding area of Montmeló, has long been a staple of F1's testing sessions. With a well-balanced mix of fast, medium, and slow corners, changes in elevation, and a combination of long straights and tight sections, it allows teams to identify where their cars perform best and where they need to focus their development.
As a result, it's a track that heavily favors car over driver, as good wheels easily outshine fast hands, and this proved ever true in Saturday's qualifying, with another front row lockout by McLaren's Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris. The Australian set a blistering lap, getting the best time in each of the three sectors to spoil a pole-position repeat from Norris. Unlike Monaco, however, a pole isn't a near-guarantee win, and Piastri will have his work cut out to claim the top step of the podium.
A track that chews hard on the tyres, Pirelli will be bringing its harder compounds to Montmeló, but even then, it's usually not enough. Unlike last time, when Mercedes ran over 60 laps on a single set of tyres and was only forced to stop by the rules, Barcelona is typically a two-stop race.
Another factor that could throw a spanner in the works is the latest FIA regulation on the flexibility of front wings. The new rules establish significantly smaller margins for how much different parts of the wing can flex during a predetermined load, which, in theory, should bring an end to tactics such as McLaren's "mini DRS" flex at the 2024 Azerbaijan Grand Prix. Despite being the team that sparked the "flexywings" debate, the Papaya team's performance appeared unfazed by the new regulations, with Williams looking like the most affected.
Formula 1 Predictions: Spanish GP
Lando Norris Race Winner (+185, BetMGM)
Far from the surefire odds of a Monaco polesitter, I still think Norris comes with a very solid proposition for Spain. He pulled a masterful drive at Monaco, never flinching even under heavy pressure from Ferrari's Charles Leclerc, while waiting for Max Verstappen to complete his mandatory pit stops. He'll have a lot more work to do in Montmeló, a track where not only will he start behind Piastri, but the challenge from the car behind is also a real threat.
Still, Norris admitted that he felt a weight lifted from his shoulders after the win, so if he can maintain that mindset, there's every chance he can bring the fight to Piastri. From a technical standpoint, he has an advantage over Piastri and Vestrappen. The high heat in Barcelona, combined with the track's abrasive surface, means that controlling tyre degradation and extending runs while remaining quick will be key. That should come naturally to Norris, whose smooth driving style thrives at pushing while managing tyres.
Will that prove enough? It's hard to say.
He was on a similar pace to Piastri all week, only a small mistake on the second sector potentially denying him a much closer qualifying time. At the same time, the cold-headed Australian did show a bit of a flinch at Monaco, nearly losing the back of his car while chasing Leclerc.
It's far from a given from either driver, but a Norris win pays at a much higher rate.
George Russell Top 3 (+350, BetMGM)
The Mercedes driver lost his cool at Monaco, openly admitting to cutting the Nouvelle Chicane to move past Alexander Albon's sluggish pace. Still, the Englishman has been Mr. Consistency this season, racking up low-profile results regularly.
He demonstrated his pace during the free practices and lamented an overly conservative approach from Mercedes over the radio after qualifying, indicating that he felt there was still pace to close the gap between himself and the McLarens.
He tied with Verstappen on Q3, so if there is indeed more to come from the Mercedes, a good launch off the line could be all it takes for Russell to secure his fifth podium of the season.
Fernando Alonso Top 10 (-140, BetMGM)
A roar descended from the crowds at Barcelona as veteran Spaniard Alonso showed once again that he has the pace to fight for the points that have been denied him so far, but if there's anywhere you trust him to break the dead spell, it's at home.
Aston Martin has taken a solid step forward with the development package that they brought to Imola, and only a bizarre engine failure denied Alonso points in Monaco after terrific performances on Saturday and Sunday.
Despite initial optimism, Alonso's blistering lap early in the running was only good enough for 10th as track conditions helped late runners. Still, at a track that he knows like the palm of his hand, with an improved car and very few serious competitors starting behind him, only another unexpected occurrence can deny the two-time champ his first points of the season.
