2022 Daytona 500 NASCAR Prop Picks: 2 PrizePicks Over/Unders to Target for Sunday’s Race
Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images. Pictured: Kurt Busch, driver of the #45 Monster Energy Toyota
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30!) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
This year I’ll be doing a weekly column where I detail my favorite picks over at PrizePicks.
For those of you unfamiliar with PrizePicks, it’s a daily fantasy sports site that allows you to analyze players — or in this case drivers — hitting the over or under on various fantasy stats.
There are always two options when making a play at PrizePicks. The first is called a Flex Play, and is the safer option. With this option you can get some money back, even if at a net loss, for hitting at least half your picks.
On the flip side, if you hit all of your picks, you won’t return as big of a payout as the other option, the Power Play.
For a Power Play, you must hit on all legs of your play, but the return will be very handsome. For a two-leg play you will triple your money if you win the Power Play. For a three-leg play, it will return 5x. For hitting four out of four, it will be 10x.
For NASCAR, PrizePicks uses scoring identical to DraftKings. That means those of us familiar with the DFS side of NASCAR will have an easy transition to PrizePicks.
With all that out of the way, here are my two favorite PrizePicks over/unders for the Daytona 500.
Top Daytona 500 PrizePicks Props
The pick two picks I’m making are:
- Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. UNDER 31.5 fantasy points
- Kurt Busch UNDER 33.5 fantasy points
My statistical model projects Stenhouse to hit the under 60.2% of the time, while Busch goes under 59.1% of the time. I like the correlation here in that these two drivers are both not Ford drivers.
I expect Ford to be the dominant manufacturer. If it is and takes many of the top spots while leading laps, it’s going to be hard for both Stenhouse and Busch to hit their respective overs.
Because Daytona is such a high-variance track, I like making this pick a Flex Play, where we’ll lose half our play, but get half of it back if one of the two hit. However, if both hit, you’ll double your money.
In this particular play, I really like making it a Flex Play because Stenhouse drives a Chevy and Kurt Busch drives a Toyota. So while they are correlated in that they are both not Fords, they do have some anti-correlation as well.