NASCAR Picks for the Daytona 500: Sunday’s Longshot to Bet With 40-1 Odds

NASCAR Picks for the Daytona 500: Sunday’s Longshot to Bet With 40-1 Odds article feature image

Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images. Pictured: Ty Dillon’s car at Daytona 500 practice.

  • NASCAR's Daytona 500 is known as a very unpredictable race, resulting in better-than-expected finishes for longshot drivers.
  • This not only applies to NASCAR future bets, but also prop betting picks and predictions as well.
  • Below we break down a NASCAR pick offering value for the 2022 Daytona 500 with 40-1 odds.

It's finally here, race day, fans! No more waiting, the 2022 NASCAR regular season kicks off with Sunday's Daytona 500 (2:30 p.m. ET, FOX).

Now that we're so close to the race, more prop bets are being released.

I've talked before about how I expect this Daytona 500 to come down to team and manufacturer strategy, and that's where I'm focusing for this bet.

Be sure to download the FREE Action Network App for live Daytona 500 odds, personal pick tracking and the option to follow best bets from our verified NASCAR experts.

Daytona 500 Picks

Ty Dillon (+4000) to Finish as Top Chevrolet

The younger Dillon brother has had some impressive superspeedway results despite running in back-marker equipment. He's made 18 starts at Daytona and Talladega, and 17 of them came while he drove for the defunct teams of Germain Racing (16 starts) and Leavine Family Racing (1 start).

His only start in good equipment was in his very first superspeedway race ever driving for his grandfather's team, Richard Childress Racing. This came before he was even a full-time rookie in the Cup Series.

Despite that, he's had four top-six results in 18 starts. In two of those, he wound up as the top Chevrolet.

My statistical model gives Dillon a 6.1% chance of being the top Chevy. This 40-1 line at WynnBET means this bet needs to hit only 2.4% of the time to be profitable in the long run.

I'd bet this down to 25-1.

The Bet: Ty Dillon to Finish as Top Chevrolet (+4000)

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