The FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway (2 p.m. ET, Prime Video) marks the fifth straight intermediate oval race for the Cup Series.
As we've seen over the previous four intermediate ovals in this stretch, practice data has played an important role in the running order. That's especially true for Kansas and Charlotte, where there was a very strong correlation from practice speed to race speed.
Those two races are notable because they are two of the best comparable tracks to Michigan, which should point us in the direction of practice being a big asset again this week.
So that's exactly where I'm looking with a couple of head-to-head matchups for my NASCAR best bets at Michigan.
FireKeepers Casino 400 Best Bets
Last week, I hit on three of the four head-to-head matchups, so I'm going right back to DraftKings which has been hanging a nice menu in recent weeks for driver matchups.
Like last week, a simple breakdown of each driver’s practice FLAGS rating and their predicted median finishing position from my model will show why I prefer the drivers that I do in these matchups.
1. Tyler Reddick +125 over Kyle Larson
- FLAGS: Reddick 89.4% (2nd), Larson 56.4% (16th)
- Med. Finish: Reddick 7.0, Larson 9.0
2. Bubba Wallace +100 over Chase Briscoe
- FLAGS: Wallace 80.8% (6th), Briscoe 60.7% (14th)
- Med. Finish: Wallace 10.0, Briscoe 12.0
Two plus-money matchups should hopefully net us a profit; we'd need to hit just one to at worst break even if we bet one unit per matchup. I like taking the cars that showed a bit more practice speed, and in both cases we're getting drivers that were strong at Michigan last year as Reddick and Wallace were two of the top three cars in fastest laps per healthy lap run (Wallace's car took damage last year, ruining the latter portion of his race).
You can also parlay these two bets together at a +350 price tag if you want a bit of a longer-odds sweat.
