NASCAR at Atlanta Odds, Prop Betting Pick: The Driver to Back for a Top-5 Finish in Sunday’s Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500
Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images. Pictured: The #19 Auto Owners Insurance Toyota, driven by Martin Truex Jr.
- The Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 will start at 3 p.m. ET (FOX) on Sunday, June 7 at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
- According to updated NASCAR odds, Kevin Harvick is the favorite to win the race, followed by Chase Elliott.
- Learn about a driver to target in top-five finish betting props.
Atlanta Motor Speedway is an extremely abrasive 1.5-mile racetrack that wears out tires very quickly, putting long run speed at a premium.
Since NASCAR returned a few weeks ago, the Cup Series has run two races each at Darlington Raceway, an extremely unique 1.366-mile egg-shaped oval, and Charlotte Motor Speedway, another 1.5-mile track but with much less wear than Atlanta, and one race at Bristol Motor Speedway, a high-banked half-mile circuit.
While none of these tracks are perfect comps to Atlanta, there is data we can analyze from those events to find betting value for Sunday’s Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 (3 p.m. ET, FOX).
Let’s look at one driver worth targeting for a top-five finish today at Atlanta.
Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@PJWalsh24) for any additional bets I make on today’s race.
NASCAR at Atlanta Folds of Honor Quick Trip 500 Odds, Betting Pick
Martin Truex Jr. (+170) for a Top-5 Finish
I waffled so hard on whether to bet Truex outright to win today’s Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500, but couldn’t pass up Alex Bowman at similar (or the same depending on when you looked) odds.
Since NASCAR returned from the COVID-19 postponement, Truex’s speed has flown under the radar.
If we exclude Bristol Motor Speedway, which will not correlate at all to performance on Sunday at Atlanta, Truex ranked third in fast laps run, fourth in laps led and scored the fourth-best driver rating over the four combined races at Darlington and Charlotte.
In addition, Truex started last after his car failed pre-race inspection three times at Auto Club Speedway (another high tire wear track like Atlanta) back in March, but drove his way to second place late in the race.
Unfortunately for Truex, his rear-tire changer experienced a cramp in his hand during a green flag pit stop on lap 160 of 200, resulting in an extremely slow stop that for all intents and purposes ended his chances of a great finish.
Even after starting last and the late-race pit problems, just four drivers (Alex Bowman, Ryan Blaney, Jimmie Johnson and Chase Elliott) finished with a better average running position than Truex.
And while I’m not going overboard since the last race at Atlanta took place more than 15 months ago, Truex had the best driver rating and finished second in that event, which certainly doesn’t hurt.