NASCAR Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Odds, Outright Winner Picks: It’s Bristol Baby!

Aug 17, 2019 05:30 PM EDT

Matthew OHaren-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joey Logano

One of NASCAR’s crown-jewel events takes place tonight at the half-mile bullring at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Bristol is a high-banked, concrete track known for lots of action. Because it’s such a unique track, where the car is less in play and the driver more in play, it’s not uncommon to see a driver that generally runs midpack — or even worse — to run up front at Bristol.

Without a doubt, the most important factor in my model is track history, but because of the wild nature of Bristol, that doesn’t explain much of the variance in finishing position. Year-to-date driver rating and long run practice speed are also important.

NASCAR at Bristol Odds

One important note: post qualifying inspection takes place in the afternoon, and any car that fails inspection will go to the rear of the field for the start of the race. That can have a major impact at a track like Bristol, where going a lap down is much easier due to its small size.

As usual, I’ll post updates as inspection plays out, and as more books post lines.

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game

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