NASCAR FanShield 500 Best Bets: The 2 Favorites & 1 Underdog to Bet at Phoenix on Sunday

Credit:

Photo by Lyle Setter/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: NASCAR Cup Series driver Kevin Harvick

Mar 08, 2020, 01:43 PM EDT
  • Nick Giffen details his favorite picks for the FanShield 500 at Phoenix, including two favorites and one underdog.
  • Because of changes in NASCAR's aerodynamic packages, evaluating the 2016-18 races is more valuable than the 2019 competition.
  • See the full betting breakdown below.

Today’s FanShield 500 is the first race at a short, flat track in the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season. Ordinarily, that means we’d look back to the previous year to see how drivers performed, but with NASCAR reverting back to a lower downforce aerodynamic package at these tracks, racing and driver ability should match the 2016-2018 seasons better than 2019.

What does it take to win at Phoenix under these conditions? Five of the six Phoenix winners from 2016-2018 displayed these characteristics:

  • A driver rating over the last eight short, flat tracks above 95
  • A driver rating over the last 15 races overall above 99
  • A top-14 speed over 10 consecutive laps in final practice

Sunday promo! Bet $1, win $100 if Pacers make a 3-pointer vs. the Mavericks (7 p.m. ET start)


The lone exception is Ryan Newman, who won the 2017 spring race by staying out under a late race caution and holding off drivers who took two or four tires. In other words, if we’re going to bet on a longshot, it has to be somebody who can still hang out on the lead lap, and win with strategy.

So which drivers offer the most value for today’s race?

NASCAR Fanshield 500 at Phoenix Best Bet Picks

Get the EDGE

Unlock The Action EDGE

Unlock this article + all the EDGE benefits

Get the EDGE
model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game

Top Offers

Odds Boosts
See More >
Odds boosts are simply regular bets offered at enticing odds. They're available to everyone and there's no limit to how many you can bet.
Sportsbook Reviews
See More >
Discover the best online sports betting sites and take advantage of bonus offers from legal sportsbooks.
Expert Picks
See More >
See what plays the Action Network experts are making for all of today's games.
PRO Membership
See More >
Access betting systems and signals to get daily, actionable picks.
Download the App
See More >
Download the Action app to track all your bets in one place. Exclusive data helped you make smarter betting decisions.
Newsletter
See More >
The best sports betting newsletter with trends, insights and news - condensed in a two-minute read.
Live Odds
See More >
See live odds and the best lines for every game.

Follow Us On Social

Top Stories