NASCAR at Homestead Odds, Picks: Betting Predictions for Sunday’s Dixie Vodka 400

Credit:

Photo by Brian Lawdermilk/Getty Images. Pictured: Martin Truex Jr., driver of the #19 Bass Pro Shops Toyota

Jun 14, 2020, 01:55 PM EDT
  • According to updated NASCAR at Homestead odds, Kevin Harvick and Martin Truex Jr. are co-favorites to win today's Dixie Vodka 400 (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX).
  • Defending Homestead-Miami Speedway winner Kyle Busch is next at +475, with Chase Elliott and Brad Keselowski next at 7-1 each.
  • Keep reading to learn about our best bet picks and predictions for Sunday's NASCAR race at Homestead.

After 500 laps around the half-mile Martinsville Speedway on Wednesday night, the NASCAR Cup Series is back in action at the Homestead-Miami Speedway on Sunday.

Not having practice since NASCAR’s return from the COVID-19 pandemic has made handicapping race winners more difficult than normal, but the return to a 1.5-mile racetrack provides us more recent data to lean on.

Last weekend the Cup Series raced at Atlanta Motor Speedway, a high tire wear 1.5-mile circuit just like Homestead, so this is an important race to analyze.

In addition, we’ll also look at performances in The Real Heroes 500 at Darlington back on May 17 because that track also wears out tires quickly and, more importantly, the tire combination used in that event will be the same combination used on Sunday at Homestead.


GOLF PROMOS FOR THIS WEEKEND! Bet $50, Win $100 if your golfer makes ONE birdie and Bet $10, Win $50 if ANYONE birdies 18 on Sunday!


I’m specifically interested in data from The Real Heroes 500 as opposed to the Toyota 500, which took place three days later at Darlington, as the first event was run in the heat of the day, while the Wednesday race ran at night on a cooler racetrack.

Sunday’s Dixie Vodka 400 (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX) is also a day race, so I want to know which cars were best on a hot, slick track at Darlington as that will be much more similar to what the drivers experience at Homestead.

After looking at historical Homestead data, as well as recent results from Atlanta and Darlington, here are two drivers I’m betting for the Dixie Vodka 400.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter (@PJWalsh24) for any additional bets I make for Homestead.

NASCAR at Homestead Odds, Betting Picks


Odds as of Sunday at 7:30 a.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Kevin Harvick (+500) to Win at Homestead

With Tyler Reddick already in tow at 70-1, I’m passing on the mid-tier and going right for my two favorites to win the race — the first of which is Harvick.

Here are Harvick’s stats from the two day races run at high tire wear tracks since NASCAR’s return: two wins, best driver rating, best average running position, most laps led and most fast laps run.

And here are Harvick’s finishes at Homestead since joining Stewart-Haas Racing in 2014: first, second, third, fourth, third and fourth.

Kevin Harvick: +500
Get a $1,000 sign-up bonus now!

BET NOW

CO, NJ, PA, IN, WV only.

Martin Truex Jr. (+500) to Win at Homestead

While Harvick was the best driver in the heat of the day at Darlington and Atlanta, Truex was clearly the second-best performer.

Over those two races, Truex is tied for the second-best average finish, has run the second-most fast laps, has led the third-most laps and posted the second-best driver rating.

Just like Harvick, Truex has also been a rocket ship at Homestead, including finishes of first, second and second over his last three races in Miami with the most fast laps run in last year’s event, which is significant because it’s the same aero package that the Cup Series will run on Sunday.

And finally, since Truex won at Martinsville on Wednesday night he’ll have the best pit stall at Homestead, which will only help his cause.

Martin Truex Jr: +500
Get a $1,000 sign-up bonus now!

BET NOW

CO, NJ, PA, IN, WV only.
How would you rate this article?
Follow PJ Walsh on Twitter
@PJWalsh24

Top Offers

Odds Boosts
See More >
Odds boosts are simply regular bets offered at enticing odds. They're available to everyone and there's no limit to how many you can bet.
Sportsbook Reviews
See More >
Discover the best online sports betting sites and take advantage of bonus offers from legal sportsbooks.
Expert Picks
See More >
See what plays the Action Network experts are making for all of today's games.
PRO Membership
See More >
Access betting systems and signals to get daily, actionable picks.
Download the App
See More >
Download the Action app to track all your bets in one place. Exclusive data helped you make smarter betting decisions.
Newsletter
See More >
The best sports betting newsletter with trends, insights and news - condensed in a two-minute read.
Live Odds
See More >
See live odds and the best lines for every game.

Follow Us On Social

Top Stories