NASCAR Odds Today: A Pick With Value Sunday at Darlington

The 2023 Goodyear 400 at Darlington Raceway goes green at 3 p.m. ET (FS1) on Sunday, May 14.

Darlington is a unique egg-shaped oval with a very abrasive surface that results in significant tire wear, making speed on long runs key for both drivers and bettors examining NASCAR odds.

As a result, I'm leaning heavily on Saturday's practice sessions to determine my favorite NASCAR pick for today's race at Darlington.

NASCAR Pick for Darlington

*NASCAR odds as of Sunday morning

Bubba Wallace had an absolute rocket during practice, ranking second in five-, 15-, 20- and 25-lap averages.

Wallace "slipped" to third best in 10-lap average, which is still extremely sporty.

All of these practice speed rankings are best among the Toyota drivers, which is where I'm focusing when it comes to NASCAR odds for Darlington.

Wallace is currently 7-1 to finish as the top Toyota at Caesars Sportsbook, a bet I'm making for today's race.

Do I expect Wallace to be the best Toyota overall today? No, I do not.

Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin are both very good at this track.

However, based on speeds in practice yesterday and Wallace's performance in qualifying — the No. 23 Toyota will start second — I believe that this car will have enough speed to stay in the top 10 and have a chance to cash this ticket as the laps wind down Sunday afternoon at Darlington.

Based on the data we have, I think that Wallace finishes at the top Toyota more 12.5% of the time, which is what his current 7-1 price tag implies.

The bet: Wallace (7-1) to finish as top Toyota via Caesars