Following stops at Daytona and Auto Club, the NASCAR Cup Series heads to Las Vegas for its third points race of the 2023 season.
My personal betting strategy is to still remain very conservative until we get more races under our belts and data to analyze, but that doesn't mean I'm passing altogether early this week.
In fact, there's a 50-1 outright bet that I've already made on a driver who's priced as a longshot, but one who could legitimately win Sunday's Pennzoil 400 (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX) on speed.
NASCAR Odds, Pick
*Odds as of Tuesday morning
The Chevys were extremely fast at Auto Club Speedway last weekend, the first race run at an intermediate track this season.
And while Auto Club and Las Vegas aren't all that similar, it's frankly all we have to lean on regarding current data.
In that race, Daniel Suârez finished fourth while posting the third-best driver rating, trailing only Trackhouse Racing teammate Ross Chastain and race winner Kyle Busch.
But what really excites me about Suârez and his 50-1 price tag is how well he ran at Kansas and Las Vegas last fall.
In these two races, Suârez tied with Joey Logano for the most fast laps run among drivers who started both events.
And it's not like the No. 99 Chevy dominated one of these races to skew the numbers.
At Kansas in September, Suârez posted the third-most fast laps, then backed that up by tying for the third-most fast laps at Las Vegas in October.
There's no denying that this car had plenty of speed at this track type at the end of last season and inspired only more confidence with how ran last weekend at Auto Club.
It's also crucial to note that Suârez is anywhere from 25-1 to 50-1 depending on the sportsbook, so be sure to shop for the latest NASCAR odds if tailing this pick.
The pick: Suârez 50-1 to Win
