NASCAR Odds, Picks, Predictions: 2 Daytona 500 Prop Bets Showing Big Value
Chris Graythen/Getty Images. Pictured: NASCAR Cup Series driver Kyle Busch
With the 40-car field for the Daytona 500 set, it’s time to dive into prop bets!
Plenty of props are available, including some novelty props around both the starting position and car number of the winner.
As it turns out, there are two starting position prop bets that are showing monster value for Sunday’s NASCAR Cup Series regular-season opener (2:30 p.m., FOX).
Let’s take a look.
Daytona 500 Prop Bets
FanDuel Sportsbook has the following odds available on the starting position of the race winner:
- 1-10: -170
- 11-20: +210
- 21-30: +650
- 31+: +1300
I came across this prop thanks to discussing a few other bets with Jim Sannes of numberFire, and he pointed out his model was showing value on two of these ranges.
Per Jim, “FanDuel has starting grid 21st to 30th at +650, and I have it at 23.0% [to win].” Sannes’ numbers translate to fair odds of +335. I cross-referenced that same range with my model, and sure enough, I was showing value too at 28.3%!
My model is even more bullish on this range than Sannes’ model.
When both of our models align, I feel very good that this is a strong value. Even using Jim’s more conservative estimate, starting position 21-30 is showing an expected 72.5% long-term ROI.
This seems to be a misprice from FanDuel, as the implied odds of each individual driver’s odds to win the race is 30.7%.
But there’s more!
Starting positions 31+ are also offering big value at +1300. That translates to 7.1% implied odds.
The funny part about this: Kyle Busch, who starts 36th, is +1300 to win the race at FanDuel. That means you’re getting nine other drivers for free!
That includes two-time superspeedway winner Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., reigning Xfinity Series champion Ty Gibbs, and seven-time NASCAR Champion Jimmie Johnson.
I have this range winning at 11.5% while Sannes is at 9.9%. Both are well clear of the 7.1% implied odds. That means there’s a long-term expected ROI of at least 38.6% if we use Sannes’ model.
I have a full unit on 21-30 and half a unit on 31+ thanks to these big edges.
I’d bet 21-30 down to +400 and 31+ to +1000.
Pick: Starting Position of Race Winner: 21-30 (+650)
Pick: Starting Position of Race Winner: 31+ (+1300)
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