NASCAR Odds, Picks & Predictions for Watkins Glen: The Best Early Bet for Sunday’s Go Bowling at the Glen
Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Buescher, driver of the #17 Fastenal Ford
Wow, it feels like ages since I’ve done one of these.
It hasn’t been, of course, but as a dad with kids playing sports, going to the birthday parties, trips, etc. over the summer, I’ve definitely been pulled into that #DadLife on weekends.
Thankfully, it hasn’t taken a lot of work on my end to profit over the last month or so thanks to our very own Nick Giffen’s epic hot streak.
However, Giffen is busy this week working on NFL betting data and tools for the upcoming season, so it’s back on yours truly to crank out a piece on the best early bet for Sunday’s race at Watkins Glen.
And wouldn’t you know it? I actually have one I really like that’s available at this very moment.
NASCAR Pick for Watkins Glen
*Odds as of Wednesday afternoon
Chevy drivers have owned the road courses so far this season.
Through four races on this type of circuit, Chevy drivers have not only won all four races – they’ve dominated.
For example, the top five drivers in laps led (Chase Elliott, Daniel Suarez, Tyler Reddick, Ross Chastain and Kyle Larson) all pilot Chevrolets.
In addition, five of the top six drivers in terms of fast laps run also come from the Chevy stable.
So, as my wife would say when we’re trying to eat healthy but decide to make a McDonald’s run instead, let’s take all of those Chevys, throw them right in the garbage, and head right to Ford instead.
To do this, I’m looking directly at the top Ford market and specifically at Chris “Don’t call me Christopher” Buescher.
Remember when I talked about the drivers who have run the most fast laps at road courses this season?
Five of the top six are Chevy drivers, but the one who broke in there to break up the Bowtie party was Buescher, who ranks third in that statistic to this point.
The No. 17 Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing Ford has also posted the seventh-best overall driver rating on road courses this year, and the third best of Ford drivers, trailing only Austin Cindric and Ryan Blaney.
As of the time of writing, Cindric is 3-1 to be the top Ford finisher with Blaney just behind at +350.
What is Buescher, you might ask? He’s 8-1.
And if you need any more reasons to like Buescher, he was one of only three drivers (and the only Ford) to participate in the Goodyear tire test at Watkins Glen earlier this year, providing him and his team meaningful laps in the new Next Gen car.
In fact, Buescher has already admitted that something they found in that test led to a huge improvement in performance at every road course since that test.
I’ve seen many NASCAR bettors that I respect on Buescher to win outright as well, and I can’t argue against that at all.
But with that said, I prefer the value of Buescher as top Ford, and not having to worry about all those fast Chevys to cash this ticket.
The bet: Buescher (8-1) for Top Ford