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NASCAR Odds, Picks & Predictions for Richmond: A Plus-Money Prop With Value for Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400

NASCAR Odds, Picks & Predictions for Richmond: A Plus-Money Prop With Value for Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400 article feature image
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Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images. Pictured: NASCAR Cup Series driver Austin Dillon.

I’m not sure what to think about Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400 (3:30 p.m. ET, FOX) at Richmond Raceway for a NASCAR betting perspective.

The Cup Series has competed at one flat track (Phoenix) already this season, so there is some data to lean on considering that Richmond is also in the flat-track category.

However, while both are flat tracks, they’re really not all that similar in terms of size, shape, tire falloff, etc…, so, in general, I’m opting to wait until we see the results from Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions before really diving into to Sunday’s race.

However, if you’re looking to get down on something early for Richmond, recent track history says that there’s an undervalued top-10 finish prop available at plus-money ahead of the race.

NASCAR Pick for Richmond

*Odds as of Wednesday morning

It’s been a tale of two Richmonds for Austin Dillon throughout his career.

In his first nine Cup Series races at the track, Dillon managed just two-15 finishes with a best result of 13th in 2016.

However, the driver of the No. 3 Chevy has gotten the handle of this track in recent years, scoring five top-11 finishes in his last six races, including three top-six finishes over that span as well.

And Dillon hasn’t just been lucking into those finishes without speed, evidenced by running the eighth-most fast laps at Richmond in those six events.

While I don’t expect Dillon to be challenging for a win in Sunday’s race, his recent history at Richmond suggests that he could easily show top-10 speed.

At +105 for a top-10 finish at BetMGM, the break-even point for this wager is 48.78%, which suggests there’s value betting on Dillon to achieve something he’s done in four of the last six Cup Series races at Richmond.

The bet: Austin Dillon (+105) for a top-10 finish

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