NASCAR Odds Richmond: Picks, Predictions for Sunday’s Toyota Owners 400

The 2024 Toyota Owners 400 is expected to go green Sunday at 7 p.m. ET (FOX) at Richmond Raceway.

Bettors, though, are keeping one eye on the latest NASCAR odds – and another on the latest weather forecast, which could delay or even postpone the race.

Regardless, Kyle Larson will start from the pole, with Chase Elliott, Ross Chastain, Alex Bowman and Bubba Wallace rounding out the top five.

Martin Truex Jr. (+500) and Larson (+500) are the co-race favorites, followed by Christopher Bell (+60o) and Denny Hamlin (+700) based on live NASCAR odds for Richmond.

I typically lean heavily on practice results when determining my favorite NASCAR picks in these articles, but this week I'm not even looking at Saturday's speeds.

NASCAR Odds, Pick for Richmond

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Denny Hamlin is the king of tire wear races in the NASCAR Cup Series.

The driver of the No. 11 Toyota is the best driver in the series at managing tires, which we witnessed throughout his win at Bristol two weeks ago.

Richmond is also an incredible track for Hamlin, who has one win, three top-five finishes, the best average finish (among drivers to make all four starts) and the best driver rating at this track since NASCAR introduced the Next Gen car prior to the start of the 2022 season.

Despite the stats above, Hamlin has dropped from odds of around +450 prior to practice and qualifying to +700 heading into Sunday night's race, as of this writing.

I'm sure I'm alone on an island here, which has never been a problem for me, but I'm happy to let everyone else overreact and start my NASCAR card by buying back the value with the four-time Richmond winner.

The bet: Denny Hamlin to Win (+700 at Caesars)