NASCAR Props Challenge Picks for Sunday’s Gander RV 400 at Dover
Matthew O’Haren-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: A view of the Miles the Monster statue at Dover International Speedway
- NASCAR's Props Challenge game asks fans to answer 10 prop-betting questions each week, with weekly winners eligible for prizes.
- PJ Walsh offers his Props Challenge picks and analysis for Sunday's Gander RV 400 (2 p.m. ET, FS1) at Dover International Speedway.
After thrilling pack racing at the massive Talladega Superspeedway last week, the NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series will visit Dover International Speedway — a one-mile, highly-banked concrete racetrack — this weekend.
Nicknamed “The Monster Mile,” Dover is very fast for a one-mile track due to the banking while also being described as “self-cleaning.” This is because that same banking sends spinning cars back down the racetrack toward the infield.
It’s not exactly a great situation for the other drivers to have cars spinning down the track in front of them, but it does make for exciting racing from a viewing standpoint.
Personally, I think Dover is one of the most underrated tracks on the MENCS schedule, and am looking forward to sweating both my betting and props action on Sunday.
And speaking of props, here are my NASCAR Props Challenge picks for Sunday’s Gander RV 400.
1. Three of the past five winners have started from the front row at Dover. Will Sunday’s winner start from the top two?
Three of the past five winners have started on the front row, but if we look further back, it’s still happened only three times over the past 12 races at Dover.
Recent races have skewed the more reliable overall trend.
2. O/U 15.5 stage points for Kevin Harvick in Sunday’s race?
Just three drivers scored more than 15 stage points over both races at Dover last season. With an average of only 1.5 driver per race in 2018, there’s no way I can bank on Harvick being one of those drivers on Sunday.
3. Daniel Suarez has never finished outside the top 10 at Dover in his four Cup starts. Does this streak continue?
Suarez is definitely a trendy sleeper to keep an eye on in both DFS and NASCAR betting, especially in driver matchups and top 5/top 10 props.
However, according to odds from the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, Suarez is 50-1 to win Sunday’s race.
I think he’ll have the speed to contend for a top 10 once again, but I’m not willing to call it ahead of time.
4. O/U 1.5 drivers will lead over 125 laps in Sunday’s race?
Three of the last four Dover races finished with just one driver leading more than 125 laps, so let’s go under.
5. Which driver finishes higher? Chase Elliott or Martin Truex Jr.?
Both of these drivers have shown plenty of speed at Dover over the past couple of years, so I won’t blame anyone for disagreeing with me here.
While close, Truex has the slightly better stats, including average running position, laps led and fast laps run at Dover since 2017.
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6. O/U 33.5 race points for Jimmie Johnson in Sunday’s race?
Johnson has absolutely dominated at Dover throughout his career, racking up an insane 11 wins in 34 races. But during his recent slump, Jimmie’s stats have slipped at Dover as well.
In fact, Johnson has already taken early money at Westgate to win Sunday’s race, but I’m not buying it.
While most of the market zigs, I’ll zag and go under.
7. Two of the past four Dover races have finished in NASCAR Overtime. Will Sunday’s race go beyond the scheduled 400 laps?
Similar to expecting a top-10 finish from Suarez, it’s also tough to confidently predict a caution to come out in the final laps to force overtime.
8. The last six Dover races have seen an average of 12.3 drivers finish on the lead lap. O/U 12.5 lead lap finishers on Sunday?
I truly have no idea which way to go here. Initially, I didn’t think the new aero package would have much of an effect on a track like Dover, but drivers complained of aero issues at Richmond, so who really knows?
My gut says the racing will be closer and passing will be difficult, so I’ll go over.
9. Chevrolet drivers have won eight of the last 12 Dover races. Will a Chevrolet driver go to Victory Lane on Sunday?
Leaning on odds to win the race once again, Chase Elliott (+1200), Kurt Busch (+1800) and Kyle Larson (+1800) are the only Chevy drivers among the top 12 at Westgate.
This is an easy no.
10. O/U 16.5 lead changes in Sunday’s race?
Because my gut says that passing will be difficult on Sunday, I think we see fewer than 17 lead changes.