There are just three races to go in the 2019 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series season, starting with today's AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway.
With the playoffs field whittled down to eight drivers, differing strategies will be at play, as those still alive in the postseason will be doing everything they can to maximize points, and non-playoff teams concerning themselves only with winning the race.
Throw in a surface that results in very little tire wear, and we have all the makings of differing pit strategies shaking up the running order throughout the race.
Using odds from the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, let's look at my favorite head-to-head driver matchups for today's race, including one offering tons of plus-money value.
NASCAR at Texas Driver Matchup Bets
Aric Almirola (+110) over Daniel Suarez
I really like Almirola today, so much so that he's also worth betting to win outright at the current number.
Aric ranked in the top-five in five-, 10- and 15-lap averages in final practice and has a favorable starting spot of sixth.
While Suarez qualified just behind Almirola in the seventh starting spot, the driver of the No. 41 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford hasn't shown nearly the race pace of his teammate this weekend.
Suarez ranked outside of the top-10 in five- and 10-lap averages in final practice, falling considerably off those of Almirola's marks.
There's frankly no reason Suarez should be favored in this matchup, so getting Aric at plus-money is a fantastic value. Because of this, I'd play Almirola down to a pick'em — typically -110 or -115 depending on the sportsbook's vig.
While there's just one bet at the time of writing, I'll continue to update this post with any driver matchups or props I add leading up to green flag.
